Surveillance balloons flying in high winds are not sophisticated spyware. But a Chinese device discovered earlier this week in the northwestern US state of Montana has proven effective as a diplomatic irritant among the world’s largest economies.
Secretary of state Antony Blinken canceled a trip to China in response to the attack, although Beijing claimed it was a “civilian airship used for research” that had gone missing.
The Pentagon announced earlier this week that it was tracking the balloon over Montana, where the US has a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile silo. At the time, it added that President Joe Biden decided not to fire because of the risk to civilians. On Saturday, the US launched a balloon over the east coast.
Earlier, the Pentagon said its decision not to shoot down the balloon reflected the fact that it gave China little information that could not be obtained from satellites. Canada said it was tracking the balloon alongside the US, but was also monitoring a “second potential incident”.
Is it a spy balloon?
First deployed during the French revolutionary war, balloons operated by spies with binoculars were used during the American civil war to detect enemy troop movements.
They were used extensively during the cold war, as the US and the Soviet Union sought ways to monitor each other’s militaries.
Without propulsion, they are subject to wind currents. But modern versions of cheap devices can contain cameras, radar and radio devices.
Why would one use it?
Improvements in satellite technology and the proliferation of spy satellites in the last decade, coupled with the use of unmanned drones, have made surveillance balloons largely unusable. But it is still used, mainly for non-military observation.
The Pentagon says the balloon does not give China capabilities beyond spy satellites, but military and intelligence analysts say the balloon’s slow speed and altitude — typically operating at about 80,000 feet, higher than commercial aircraft — allow it. to record in a larger area than satellites in orbit and capture more detail.
They are also more difficult to detect than metal drones or aircraft using traditional anti-surveillance equipment such as radar, while they can remain in the air for weeks, providing an assessment of activity on the ground.
In 2019, it was revealed that the Pentagon was experiencing its own spy balloon revival, launching a pilot scheme to “provide a continuous surveillance system to detect and prevent narcotics trafficking and homeland security threats”.
What can China achieve?
The Pentagon said the balloon was detected in US airspace after it crossed Canada. Montana and other states in the region, including North Dakota, have several bases that the U.S. would launch during the war. “Obviously, the purpose of these balloons is for surveillance,” the US official said.
Malmstrom Air Force Base, home to the US Air Force’s 341st Missile Wing and a silo for 150 intercontinental ballistic missiles, is based in Montana, known for its mountains and prairies.
US officials said the Pentagon had taken steps to prevent the balloon from recording vital information.
It is not unprecedented for the US and China to accuse each other of spying. Beijing has long claimed that American ships and planes near its border conduct surveillance. The US insists that surveillance operations are conducted in international waters and airspace. Last year, Admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific command, flew a spy plane over the South China Sea.
Other spy balloons have been observed over US territory in the past – although they don’t usually stay for long.
Some analysts have suggested that the balloon was misdirected towards the US, or that it was intended to be found as a means of warning Washington to be vigilant.
Balloons in the sky over Montana earlier this week © Chase Doak/AFP via Getty Images
Blake Herzinger, a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said on Twitter before China announced that “we should at least consider the possibility this is an error“.
“Beijing is not crazy. Sending balloons over the continental United States to collect what they can secretly do from space is an unnecessary risk,” he said.
What is the possibility of diplomatic influence?
The cancellation of Blinken’s two-day trip has been a major consequence. Washington’s chief envoy is expected to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping on a trip that would make him the first Biden administration cabinet secretary to visit China and the first secretary of state to travel to the country in more than five years.
Relations between the superpowers have been on edge. Blinken’s trip is part of an effort to stabilize tensions after talks between Biden and Xi in November. The leaders agreed at the meeting that they should try to put a floor on the relationship, which has fallen to the lowest level since the countries established diplomatic relations in 1979.
Several Republicans in Congress, including Tom Cotton, a senator from Arkansas, had earlier seized on news of the balloon to call on Blinken to cancel his visit. He also criticized the White House for allowing the attack.
Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the foreign affairs committee, said Blinken should tell “Chairman Xi and his administration that military adventurism will no longer be tolerated”.
“I don’t think so [Chinese] leaders know how big of a political deal this spy balloon is in DC,” said Bill Bishop, US-China analyst. “[It] only darkens even more the mood has darkened rapidly [Capitol] Hill.”
What is happening now?
A Chinese statement released on Friday said: “China regrets the inadvertent entry of aircraft into US airspace because force majeure. The Chinese side will continue to communicate with the US and handle this unexpected situation properly.”
The US has said in the past that it has conveyed its displeasure to China through various channels, but it is not clear how Washington has sought to address or address the issue with Beijing. Canada on Thursday summoned China’s ambassador to Ottawa to register its objections.