How Kevin McCarthy House speaker debacle could end

After two days and six ballots, there is no speaker in the House and no prospect of one appearing anytime soon. On Wednesday, the House held three separate votes to choose the next speaker and got the same result each time, and each time Republican Kevin McCarthy came up 16 votes short.

All 212 Democrats supported Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), 201 Republicans support Rep. McCarthy (R-CA), 20 Republicans voted Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) just voted today. The House is scheduled to meet again at 8 pm Wednesday after members adjourned for dinner, discussion, and a vague hope that something can somehow change. Here are four possible scenarios.

1) McCarthy made a deal

While some rebels – mostly from the House Freedom Caucus – considered it a “Don’t Kevin,” others agreed to support McCarthy if enough concessions were made. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) told reporters that he needs California Republicans to demonstrate reasonable fiscal conservatism. “Would they be willing to shut down the government instead of raising the debt ceiling? That’s a non-negotiable.” (Norman seems to have conflated raising the debt ceiling, which involves the Treasury’s ability to issue new debt and use it will cause credit default by the United States, with real funding from the government.)

Other potential concessions include placing some of McCarthy’s opponents in powerful positions on subcommittees and changing House procedures to allow just one member to propose a motion to declare the speaker’s office vacant and hold a new election. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) advised reporters that McCarthy’s opponents were “out on the ledge, and they need to figure out how to get back.” He thought that they were “beginning to realize that they’d never had a plan in the first place,” they could finally come to terms with McCarthy.

2) Stalemate

It could also be a stalemate of a scale and scope that had much in common with the Western Front in World War I. There was a lot of drama and big noise and anger without any real forward movement in either direction. After six votes, McCarthy was still not the speaker but the number only dropped from 203 to 201 despite the national attention and the press gallery overflowing with reporters, plus the intervention of former President Donald Trump on McCarthy’s behalf.

There is no reason this cannot continue indefinitely. Like McCarthy’s opponents who constantly oppose him, some of his supporters vow to support the California Republican to the end. New York’s Mike Lawler, a newly elected Republican from a Democratic district in New York, told Vox he was prepared to support McCarthy “to the last vote.” There is no reason for McCarthy not to fight on ballot after ballot in hopes of defeating his opponent. After all, after exiting the race to succeed John Boehner as speaker in 2015, this is likely McCarthy’s last shot at wielding the gavel.

However, he hasn’t gotten a single vote in the past two days, and there’s no reason to think he can do anything to move the needle.

3) McCarthy gave up

McCarthy could also just give up. He could admit that he has no path to becoming speaker and drop out of the race in the hope that Republicans can rally around an alternative candidate.

The most likely candidate at that point will be Steve Scalise, McCarthy’s No. 2. The Louisiana Republican has long been mooted as the most likely Republican alternative to McCarthy. However, Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) cautioned reporters yesterday that Scalise may also face some of the same criticism as McCarthy as a long-time member of the Republican leadership. “I think a lot of people think Steve is very similar to Kevin, but maybe it’s an alternative that can bridge the gap.”

Other possibilities that could please McCarthy’s critics include Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN). However, he managed to alienate some moderates who were McCarthy’s allies. Furthermore, McCarthy’s release will call into question many of the concessions he has made to conservatives on rule changes and spark a new battle over the power of the next speaker against the rank and file.

4) Unity candidate

The possibility of a “unity candidate” has been floated: that Democrats and at least some Republicans can unite to find an acceptable candidate. However, that scenario still seems more suitable for West Wing fan fiction from real life there, even as former Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI) hung around the floor in implausible cases happened. While some moderate Republicans have scoffed at the idea of ​​such a deal, it seems that others have put it as a mechanism to scare recalcitrant conservatives into supporting McCarthy from a serious proposal. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) told reporters late Wednesday afternoon, “I don’t think there’s any serious talk about this.” In the meantime, it’s the best way to fill airtime on cable television.