How Democrats could benefit from Kevin McCarthy’s House speaker win and a fractured GOP

Rep. Kevin McCarthy has become the speaker of the House, but only doing so by offering a series of concessions that effectively means that the speaker will be constantly under threat from his own caucus.

McCarthy’s agreement to downplay the speaker’s role could cause extreme gridlock in GOP ranks. But it may provide an opening for Democrats. If far-right lawmakers in the GOP follow through on their promises to hold up important spending and debt legislation, Republicans may have to rely on Democratic help to get the bill across the finish line — a dynamic Democrats can capitalize on.

“The deal, if they want to get it done, they have to work with us,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee. “And we’re not going to be a cheap date.”

Given the Republicans’ narrow 222-person majority, they cannot really pass much if they lose more than five votes in their own conference. Since conservatives have been vocal about their commitment to blocking major bills, like increases in the debt ceiling, in order to cut spending they want, Republicans will need Democratic votes to preserve essential government functions and services if they want to do so. become.

Additionally, as more Freedom Caucus members are added to the House Rules Committee, Democrats could theoretically team up with conservatives on the panel to block or slow bills favored by House GOP Leadership.

The situation gives Democrats leverage to enforce their own demands, if Republican leaders are really interested in doing something about it. Of course, there’s a good chance that if not, the fact that the Democrats are also ready to face it.

“I have a chance,” says Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA), member of the Rules Committee. “But it’s just an unusual time – and it’s very difficult for many to make it down the aisle.”

The GOP may need Democrats’ help on major bills

Republicans can only lose a few votes before any bill falls short of the simple majority that is needed to advance, which gives Democrats an opening.

In the last decade, there was a time when House Republicans relied on Democratic support while the conference was also divided. In 2011 and 2014, Republican House Speaker John Boehner needed Democratic votes to approve spending bills to fund the government, for example.

A similar dynamic could play out this term, with Republicans relying on Democratic help to make up for lost support in their own caucuses. “The people who are causing all this nonsense today – you can’t work with them. They can’t ask for a yes,” McGovern said.

Ultimately, the House Republicans must get a majority to pass bills including increases to the debt ceiling, spending rules, the farm bill – which authorizes many programs of the Department of Agriculture – and the defense bill that lays out funding for the military. If conservative members withhold support for the policy, the GOP won’t be able to pass a bill on its own. If they can’t, they risk a scenario like a country defaulting on its national debt and triggering an economic crisis, as well as shutting down the government that it can’t do.

As the Republicans have shown in the past, after the US almost defaulted on debt in 2011, and when it died in 2013, members of the party may be okay with that scenario playing out. However, in that case, House Republicans also received significant public backlash for their role in causing the chaos, and ultimately passed an agreement that was passed with Democratic support.

As Vox’s Andrew Prokop notes, however, any Republican attempt to reach the aisle this term may lead to blowback from the conservative wing, which could threaten the speaker as a result. As part of his bid to become speaker, McCarthy reportedly offered to change the rules that would allow any Republican to force a vote of “no confidence.”

Known as a motion to vacate, this will allow one member to vote on ousting the speaker if they are not happy with how this person is handling a particular bill or issue. Theoretically, one member of the far right could punish the collaboration with the Democrats by submitting a motion to vacate, forcing a vote against the speaker. A majority of members still need to agree to remove him. Some Democrats have warned that the rule changes McCarthy agreed to allow to become speaker could create collaborations out of fear of retaliation.

“It feels like they need to be more in the middle to get anything done. But I’m not sure that giving more weapons to the most extreme people is going to further that goal,” said Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-PA), a member of the Rules Committee, told Vox.

Republican concessions could mean complete dysfunction

The best case for Democrats is that they can put some priorities into the legislation they need to pass. But, as Scanlon points out, there is a worst-case scenario: traffic jams.

In addition to changes in the motion to vacate, which could cause the GOP leadership to shy away from bipartisan dealmaking, McCarthy’s concessions include adding some members of the Freedom Caucus to the Rules Committee, which plays an important role in deciding what bills will be passed. floor and what amendments are considered. If three ultraconservative Republicans were added to the committee, something McCarthy agreed tohe will be able to delay the bill and push for a more extreme version of the policy.

This has led some Democrats to worry that the change will empower conservative Republicans to use the panel for obstruction. “We have a small faction basically holding Congress hostage,” says Scanlon. “Many of the rule changes proposed by this extreme faction have the same goal.”

Norma Torres Rep. “It is impossible to legislate from that perspective,” he said.

Interestingly, Democrats could use the potential rule change to their advantage, said Daniel Schuman, a policy expert at the progressive advocacy group Demand Progress. Although Democrats can’t use the motion to vacate in the same way as Republicans, they will be able to offer their own amendments to bills like the appropriations bill if the changes work.

“They created a lot of veto points for legislation, and more opportunities to amend the legislation,” Schuman said. “And that opportunity, in many circumstances, will be available to all members, not just Republican members.”

Additionally, as Prokop explained, the appointment of Freedom Caucus members to the Rules Committee could give Democrats the ability to form unexpected coalitions and throw their weight around. Previously, the Rules Committee had 13 members, nine in the majority and four in the minority. If McCarthy used the same breakdown, and gave three seats to Freedom Caucus members, there would be nine Republicans, three of whom would be hardline conservatives, along with four Democrats. In that case, Democrats and hardline conservatives could theoretically work together to form a seven-person majority.

It remains to be seen how likely any bipartisan collaboration will be given how polarized the two parties are. However, Republicans’ narrow margin could lead to Democrats using those numbers in interesting ways.

“The Freedom Caucus can build an alliance with some or all of the Democrats, the McCarthy faction can build an alliance with some or all of the Democrats, or the McCarthy faction and the Freedom Caucus can build an alliance with each other,” Schuman said.