Today is Groundhog Day in the United States – the day when local residents gather around “Punxsutawney Phil” to watch if they see his shadow, which is a superstitious sign that there are six more weeks of winter ahead.
Bitcoin and altcoins have surged since the start of the year, after one of the longest crypto seasons on record. But could Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction today also mean another six months of crypto winter?
The Strange Story of Groundhog Day
The origins of Groundhog Day date back thousands of years. In the early Celtic calendar, instead of seasons and solstices there were so-called “turning points”.
May 1, for example, becomes May Day. When November 1st became All Saints’ Day and February 1st finally became Groundhog Day.
Before it was Groundhog Day, it was called “Candlemas Day.”
“If Candlemas day is fair and bright
Winter will have another plane
If it is rainy and rainy on Candlemas day
The season is gone and will not come again,” the old poem reads.
Although they don’t know why, the Germans bring badgers to tradition to help predict weather-related outcomes. When the holiday came to America through Pennsylvania Dutch settlers, the groundhog took the place of the badger.
What Another Six Weeks of Crypto Winter Will Look Like
Today, Punxsutawney Phil, the wonderful groundhog who represents the holidays, takes the position that “six more weeks of winter” are coming. With Bitcoin and altcoins on the rise, should the market also fear another six weeks of crypto season?
Interestingly, the folklore points to a “turning point” that begins on February 1st. While the market may have pulled back bullish, today could be a more formal turning point.
Will the same situation repeat again and again? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
A movie was made named after the holiday where the main actor Bill Murray relived the same day again and again. When looking at the magnified view of the crypto market through the BTCUSD chart, the following will be a Groundhog Day like scenario where the cryptocurrency bulls are repeated in a cyclical rhythm.
If the cryptocurrency market will experience another six months of crypto season, it may not mean a new bottom. In 2015, Bitcoin tried to breakout from the bottom of the bear market, only to be rejected for every other six weeks of the crypto season.
What six more week's of crypto winter would look like | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
If BTCUSD and altcoins are again rejected here, perhaps Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day should be added to the list of other seasonal financial market phenomena like the “January effect” or “sell in May and go away.”