Inflation has begun to show signs of easing from the multi-decade highs it hit in many countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The latest figures for most of the world’s biggest economies still make for worrying reading, with price pressures remaining high as the war in Ukraine continues to drive up energy and food prices. But in some countries, the pressure is easing and wholesale energy and food prices are falling. Economists and investors also expect inflation rates to stabilize over the next few years.
High inflation remains geographically based, although it is lower in many parts of Asia.
Central banks have responded with some interest rate hikes, although higher borrowing costs could add pressure on real incomes.
This page provides a regularly updated visual narrative of consumer price inflation around the world.
This includes economists’ expectations for the future, which still show revised 2023 inflation projections for many countries, although it has stabilized elsewhere including Germany, according to leading forecasters polled by Consensus Economics.
Investors’ expectations of where inflation will be five years from now have stopped rising, reflecting more aggressive tightening by central banks and a weakening economic outlook.
In some countries, especially in Europe, the government’s fiscal package to offset higher energy costs is having an impact.
The rise in energy prices was the main driver of inflation in many countries, even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Daily data shows how pressure is mounting as the conflict forces Europe to seek alternative gas supplies.
However, wholesale prices have now eased due to reduced global demand and European gas storage facilities are filling close to capacity.
Pass-through from wholesale to indirect consumer prices and household and business costs remain elevated in Europe, where the energy crisis has been stronger because of the region’s greater dependence on Russian gas.
Higher inflation has also spread beyond energy to many other goods, with food prices rising especially among the poorest consumers.
Rising prices limit what households can spend on goods and services. For the underprivileged, this can leave people struggling to get the basics such as food and shelter.
Daily data on staples, such as wholesale prices of breakfast ingredients, provide the most up-to-date indicators of the pressures facing consumers. While it has eased in the new month, they remain at a high level.
In developing countries, the wholesale cost of these ingredients has a greater impact on the final food price; food also accounts for a larger share of household spending.
Another point of concern is asset prices, especially for housing.
This has increased in many countries during the pandemic, driven by ultra-loose monetary policy, the desire of domestic workers for more space and government income support schemes. However, higher mortgage rates have led to a significant decline in house price growth in many countries.