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Germany on Saturday sent its strongest signal yet to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian invaders, pledging more tanks, armored vehicles and a large air defense system in its biggest weapons package yet for Kyiv.
The weapons package, totaling 2.7 billion euros, or about $2.95 billion, is roughly equivalent to Germany’s total military aid to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022.
The move is part of an effort by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to draw a line under a year of rocky relations due to Germany’s reluctance to provide weapons and strengthen a partnership that could prove more critical to maintaining European unity in support. war.
With elections in the United States next year, concerns are growing in European capitals that President Biden will become less willing to show support for Ukraine, because of the potential for Republicans to use the issue against him during the presidential campaign. Europe fears that support for Ukraine will decline even faster if the Republicans win the presidency next year.
Germany’s announcement is one of the strongest steps taken by Mr Scholz to back calls last year for Germans to play a leading role in European security affairs – and to strengthen their own forces – in the face of a newly perceived threat from Russia.
“We all want to end this terrible war that Russia is waging against the people of Ukraine,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who has been more outspoken than the chancellor about his support for Ukraine. “Germany will give all the help it can – as long as it is needed.”
While the additional weapons will certainly be welcomed by Ukraine, they will not necessarily arrive in time for the anticipated counterattack against Russian forces, which will be supported by new supplies of sophisticated Western equipment, including tanks and armored personnel carriers.
In recent days, when the forces of Kyiv made advances near Bakhmut, an eastern city that more than others have come to stand for the mounting costs of the war, Russian pro-war bloggers interpreted the move as a signal that the push Ukraine has begun.
But Mr Zelensky told the BBC this week that Ukraine wanted more weapons and ammunition to arrive before launching an offensive, although NATO’s top military commander said almost all the combat vehicles promised by Ukraine’s Western allies had been delivered.
Germany’s promise of new heavy weapons comes a day before Mr Zelensky is to be awarded the prestigious Charlemagne Prize, which is given by the German city of Aachen to the person who has done the most to promote European unity.
Previous winners include Winston Churchill, Pope Francis, Angela Merkel and Bill Clinton. The judge’s decision to award a prize to Mr. Zelensky and the Ukrainian people emphasizes both how the war in Ukraine has united Europe and the irony that Ukraine is not part of the European Union, despite Kyiv’s strong entreaties to join.
German news media reported that Mr Zelensky, who was in Rome on Saturday, meeting with Italian leaders including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, will come to Germany to collect the gifts.
In any case, the gift offer, and now the German arms package, is perhaps the best chance for Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Scholz to reset a relationship that has been characterized by months of tension, sniping and diplomatic missteps.
“Now is a very open moment,” said Ulrich Speck, an independent analyst who writes a foreign policy newsletter in Berlin. “I think a new dynamic will start. So Zelensky wants to go around Germany. He wants to fix this relationship, because he should be able to call Scholz without the bad feelings that we have seen before.
Even before the war, Kyiv, like many Eastern European capitals, had long been frustrated by Germany’s eagerness to pursue economic ties with Russia – which they argued came at a cost. This is especially the case in the case of the currently suspended and sabotaged Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, which crosses Ukraine by running across the Baltic Sea.
Germany’s reluctance to break its post-World War II taboo on sending weapons into conflict zones and act more forcefully as a leader on security matters has heightened tensions.
In the lead-up to the invasion of Russia in Ukraine last year, Germany promised 5,000 helmets to Kyiv troops, instead of weapons, provoking the anger of allies and Ukraine alike.
A few days after the invasion, Mr. Scholz sought to end that era of reluctance with a speech calling for a “Zeitenwende,” or “turning point,” for his nation. But in the months that followed, Germany did not follow through with strong action, repeatedly missing arms shipments and sparking widespread criticism in Europe.
Tensions reached a low point over a stalled delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks. Mr. Scholz, wary of any action that Moscow could see as escalation, refused to ship German-made tanks or allow re-export licenses to Ukraine by other countries that have tanks in supply.
He emphasized that Germany will not “go it alone” and will not retreat without a parallel move by the United States, which has provided $37 billion in military aid and promised to send some of its own tanks, clearing the way for Mr. Scholz to give. green light.
The package announced on Saturday – which includes 30 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, 20 armored infantry fighting vehicles, four IRIS-T SLM air defense systems, 100 armored fighting vehicles and 200 drones – is perhaps the clearest sign of Germany’s turnaround.
German lawmakers have also tried to change the perception that Ukraine is still more interested in relations with Russia, said Andrea Römmele, a political analyst at the Hertie School, a university in Berlin.
A prime example, he said, was a visit to Kyiv in March by Rolf Mützenich, the parliamentary leader for Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats, a party that has long appeared divided over support for the war. “The hesitant left-wing face of the SPD also went to Kyiv – this is a very important gesture,” he said, referring to the party.
For Mr. Zelensky, there are many reasons to accept the olive branch.
“If I were Ukrainian, I would look for some leaders in Europe for my cause,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a scholar at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “Zelensky sees the writing on the wall: It will be very difficult for Biden and the US Congress to get the support they need.”
Ukraine is also watching warily as countries that have declared neutrality in the war, notably China and Brazil, offer themselves as mediators. In the absence of a Washington-led effort, Kyiv would prefer to see Berlin or Paris negotiations, a Ukrainian official told the New York Times ahead of Zelensky’s visit.
But the role for French president Emmanuel Macron is being viewed cautiously by European allies and Ukraine after he made comments that appeared to appease China during a recent visit to Beijing. He was also wary of consistent calls for “strategic autonomy” from the United States and for Russia to be included in Europe’s postwar security architecture.
That leaves Germany. Ukrainian and German officials have said privately that Mr Zelensky may be hoping to persuade Mr Scholz to play a more influential role when it comes to European support for the war, or even to mediate peace.
That is what the Chancellor refused to do.
The chancellor said the cautious and slow approach, which faced criticism from allies, was the reason Berlin was technically in the best position for its main partner Kyiv, and allowed the divided German population to get used to the changing security. architecture in Europe.
“As opposed to the United States, you don’t see a drop-off of support here,” Mr. Kleine-Brockhoff said. “But does that mean that the country will be ready to increase because American support is weakening? That I doubt very much.”
Victoria Kim contributed reports from Seoul, and Shashank Bengali from Istanbul.
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