French President Emmanuel Macron may have secured a reform of the pension system, but analysts see it as a Pyrrhic victory that will damage politics.
Unable to find a parliamentary majority for change in the National Assembly, the 45-year-old leader decided there to ask for the controversial executive power that enables the government to ram rules through parliament without a vote.
The move would be unthinkable in many democracies, but it is legal under France’s 65-year-old constitution which concentrates power in the hands of the president at the expense of parliamentarians.
But Macron’s decision to amend the infamous article 49.3 for this important reform is seen by critics as a sign of weakness and an abuse of power.
“There is a feeling that the government is not listening to the people and above all they are not listening when they act brutally in the National Assembly,” said Antoine Bristielle, a political analyst at the Fondation Jean-Jaures, a Paris think tank. AFP.
Polls show that around two out of three French people oppose the idea of raising the retirement age from 62 to 64.
Macron’s minority government will now face a no-confidence vote next week, which it looks set to survive, leaving the president only to sign the legislation into law.
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“Assuming that the opposition parties do not undermine the government, this is a Pyrrhic victory for Emmanuel Macron,” said Stephane Zumsteeg, head of polling in France for public opinion group Ipsos.
“Even if it becomes law, the legacy will be a very damaged relationship between the French public and the president,” he said.
– Humiliation? –
Criticism of Macron’s governing style is nothing new.
He appeared to understand that there are limits to executive power in 2018 when a fierce anti-government uprising by “Yellow Vest” protesters rocked the country, fueling anger at him and his abrasive personality.
After defeating far-right leader Marine Le Pen in April to win a second term, he admitted in a humble victory speech that many people voted for him just to keep Le Pen from power.
He promised a “new way” that would involve more consensus-building and consultation, saying after his inauguration in May that the French were “tired of reforms coming from the top down”.
While elections for the National Assembly in June delivered the first hung parliament in more than two decades, analysts saw the result as a starkly divided country deliberately putting limits on Macron’s authority.
“They talk about being more humble, more consultation, less top-down, listening to people more, and the fact is they’ve done it right,” Zumsteeg said.
Macron made no public comments on Thursday – and has not given a press conference, media interview or speech devoted to the reforms since they were announced in January.
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In comments given to the media, the former investment banker has been approved to use article 49.3 because “the financial and economic risks are too great” for failing to make changes.
The government is considering raising the retirement age to save billions of euros a year to help reduce government debt, with credibility in the financial markets and European partners.
Most of France’s EU allies have reached the age of 65 or more.
-Macron ‘plays fire’ –
The big question for Macron is what he can achieve during the rest of his term, which runs until 2027 when he must step down after serving two terms.
“In health, the green transition or immigration, there may be possibilities for reform,” political analyst and author Brice Teinturier told AFP.
Others are more pessimistic.
Also read: The French government has not ruled out pension reform
“I wonder if we can make a comeback,” said one party lawmaker, asking not to be named.
Other normally loyal MPs disagreed, insisting that the government should arrange a vote on the legislation, even at the risk of defeat.
The bigger question for the country is whether Macron will now lead to violent and costly economic protests – and whether he increases the chances of Le Pen and his National Rally party coming to power.
The left-leaning Le Monde newspaper accused Macron of “playing with fire” in an editorial on Friday.
For Emilie Zapalski, a political communication expert, the episode “will feed the vote for the National Rally”.
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