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President Biden left for Japan on Wednesday for a meeting of the leaders of the seven major industrialized democracies that gather each year to try to keep the world economy stable.
But in fact, the main potential threat to global economic stability this year is the United States.
When Mr. Biden lands in Hiroshima for the annual Group of 7 summit on Thursday, the United States will be two weeks away from a default that may affect not only its own economy but other countries at the table. Mr. Biden will assure his partners that he will find a way to avoid it, but he knows that it is not just about control.
The showdown with Republicans over raising the federal debt ceiling has upended the president’s international diplomacy by forcing the last-minute cancellation of two planned stops after Japan: Papua New Guinea and Australia. Instead of being the commander of the most powerful superpower walking on the world stage, Mr. Biden will be a leader who is forced to hurry home to prevent the disaster that America is doing.
They were at least buoyed before leaving Washington with signs of progress as both sides emerged from a White House meeting on Tuesday expressing optimism that an agreement could be reached. In the run-up to the G7 meeting, officials from other participating countries did not attack US officials because they were all worried about possible defaults, perhaps because they trusted Mr. Biden, knowing that the moment of truth was still weeks away. away and assume that Washington will act together in time.
But this only confirms that volatility has become the new norm in Washington. After generations of counting on the United States as the most important stabilizing force in world affairs, allies in recent years have come to expect a certain level of dysfunction. Prolonged government shutdowns, banking crises, debt ceiling wars and even political violence are unthinkable, but they have led foreign leaders to consider America’s unpredictability.
“I think the biggest threat is us,” said Jane Harman, a former Democratic representative from California who later became president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “Our leadership in the world is being destroyed by our internal dysfunction. The market is still betting on our defaulting, and it is a decent bet. But if we can only increase the short-term extension and the price is a heavy budget cap – including defense – we will be tired when Ukraine needs it the most and China is making beaches everywhere.
The White House warned that the standard would only irritate America’s enemies, using arguments against Republicans, who were accused of playing with fire.
“There are countries like Russia and China that would love nothing more than for us to set standards so that they can point the finger and say, ‘You see, the United States is not a stable and reliable partner,'” said John F. Kirby, a spokesman for for the National Security Council.
But he sought to play down the effect of the dispute at the G7 meeting, saying he doubted it would “dominate the discussion” and maintaining that other leaders “don’t need to worry about that part.” The president’s partner will know if he needs to speed up his trip, he said.
“They understand that our ability to service our debt is an important part of US credibility and leadership around the world,” Mr Kirby said. “And they understand that the president also needs to focus on making sure we don’t default and talking to congressional leaders.”
Even if they knew, though, they saw the consequences. Mr. Biden’s decision to go home early raises questions about America’s commitment to the Asia-Pacific region and leaves a vacuum that China can exploit, according to analysts. The president’s visits to places like Papua New Guinea, where no U.S. leader has been before, speak loudly about his diplomatic priorities — as they don’t.
This isn’t the first time an American president has ditched foreign travel to deal with domestic issues. President George HW Bush canceled a two-week trip to Asia in 1991 to show he was focusing on the lagging economy at home, while President Bill Clinton canceled a trip to Japan during the government shutdown in 1995. President Barack Obama postponed a trip to Indonesia. and Australia in 2010 to focus on health care legislation, then skipped the Asia-Pacific summit in 2013 when its own government shut down.
The persistent culture of crisis in Washington, however, has only intensified since the arrival of President Donald J. Trump, who threatens to destroy basic alliances and embrace longtime enemies abroad while disrupting democratic norms and economic conventions at home.
The debt ceiling showdown between Mr. Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy has emphasized to his fellow presidents that despite their desire to restore normalcy, US politics has not returned to a stable state – not least because Mr. Trump is trying to restore it. office in next year’s election.
World leaders noted last week during a CNN town hall-style interview that Mr. Trump refused to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian invasion and casually endorsed the standard idea, saying it would not be destructive and “maybe. maybe nothing.”
That is not how most policymakers and analysts see it.
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said at a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bankers in Japan last week that the default “will lead to a global downturn” and “risks undermining US global economic leadership and calls into question our ability to defend our national security interests.”
Mr. Biden, a half-century veteran in high office in Washington, has regularly spoken about the uncertainty surrounding America’s place in the world that he found when he took office after Mr. Trump’s disruptive four years. “America is back,” he said he would tell his foreign counterpart, only to hear, “But for how long?”
Unlike his predecessor, Mr. Biden has pursued a more conventional foreign policy familiar to world leaders, and foreign officials see him as a more traditional U.S. president. But he also knows that he leads a country where democracy has been tested and found to be fragile. And they see the fractious politics in Washington that value confrontation over compromise, even at the risk of something that will never be imagined, like the standard.
“Certainly, the issue of the US debt ceiling will be a topic of conversation and concern at the G7 summit,” said Matthew P. Goodman, senior vice president of economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, in a briefing on the meeting last week. “I’m sure other leaders are going to ask, you know, how serious is this risk. And I think President Biden is going to say that he’s trying and doing everything he can.
At this point, the US counterpart has become alienated from the culture that dominates Washington. They have watched the debt ceiling battle with vague dread.
“I don’t think many European governments are concerned, maybe because these crises happen often but never catastrophically,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London. “Speeding up the trip is a bad signal, but there is good will for Biden in most of the capital, so they are ready to cut him off.”
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