Folarin, Adelabu seek Oyo voters’ nod to unseat Makinde

With the dust yet to settle over his role in the presidential and National Assembly elections in Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde has firmly turned his attention to his re-election bid below. People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

A disaffected member of the G-5 governorship of the main opposition party, Mr. Makinde appeared to be akimbo when the All Progressives Congress (APC) won comprehensively in the February 25 presidential and federal legislative elections in the state. Now, he faces an uphill battle against the APC candidate, Teslim Folarin, and Adebayo Adelabu of the Accord party to keep his job on Saturday.

Thirteen other candidates also sought the blessings of the 2,761,421 voters who had collected PVCs to participate in the state governorship and DPR elections. The state has a total of 3,276,675 registered voters.

Other candidates are Ajekiigbe Lateef of AA, Akinwale Tawfiq of LP, Popoola Olukayode of NNPP, Okedara Mojeed of AAC and Ajadi Bamidele of ADC.

Also on the ballot are Yusuf Akim from ADP; Adeshina Adewale of APGA; Adeniran Adeyemi from APM; Yinusa Kazeem of AAP; Okunade Tunde of BP, Adegboyega Raymond of NRM, Micheal Lana of SDP and Euba Aduragbemi of YPP.

However, all eyes are on the governor and the two main challengers, Messrs. Folarin and Adelabu.

Obstacles from the presidential election

Mr Makinde will bear his own cross on Saturday after helping President-elect Bola Tinubu win big in the state. The confusion of combining support for Mr. Tinubu with the partisan aspirations of PDP members cost the party a huge loss in the last federal election. Removing the intertwining is not something local voters find easy to grapple with.

The PDP spokesman in Oyo, Akeem Olatunji, told PREMIUM TIMES after the election that voters in the state were consumed by the desire to vote for Mr. Tinubu, who had been adopted as the presidential candidate.

The result was that the APC won three senatorial seats and eight federal constituencies out of 12 where the elections were concluded. Elections in two constituencies were declared inconclusive. Mr. Makinde’s PDP lost in the following constituencies: Ibadan North; Afijio/Atiba/East Oyo/West Oyo; East Ido/Ibarapa; East Saki/Barat Saki/Atisbo; Ogbomoso North/ Ogbomoso South/ Oriire; Egbada/Ona Ara; Akinyele/Lagelu and Irepo/Olorunsogo/ Oorelope.

The two federal constituencies awaiting elections are Oluyole and Ibadan North East/Ibadan South East. The election was declared inconclusive due to irregularity.

PDP, however, managed to secure Iseyin/Itesiju/Kajola/Iwajowa; Ogolula / Surulere; Middle Baraba, North Baraba; and Ibadan North West/Ibadan South West, which is four out of 14.

The burden of G-5 Makinde

A schism occurred in the PDP after the party’s presidential primaries. This resulted in five governors refusing to support Atiku Abubakar’s ticket. The so-called G-5 governors are Nyesom Wike from Rivers State, Samuel Ortom from Benue State, Seyi Makinde from Oyo State, Okezie Ikpeazu from Abia State and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi from Enugu State.

The governors finally disagreed with the presidential candidate who will give their support instead of Atiku. Mr. Wike, who led the attack, after dilly-dallying for the dying minutes, leaned towards the APC candidate, along with Mr. Makinde, while Mr. Orom supported Peter Obi’s Labor Party. Their support was reflected in the results of the presidential elections in their respective countries.

In Oyo State, Mr. Tinubu polled 449,884 votes to defeat Atiku who got 182,977 votes and Mr. Obi who had 99,110 votes.

There was a statement of agreement between Governor Makinde and Mr. Tinubu for the APC to reciprocate the governor’s support by supporting his re-election bid. This statement emerged after Mr. Makinde hosted Mr. Tinubu after his campaign rally at Mapo Hall in Ibadan on February 16. There are also rumors that APC’s victory in the Senate and House of Representatives elections was a trade-off.

But the APC in the state refuted the speculation. The spokesperson of the party in the state, Olawale Sadare, said that “those behind the malicious rumours” are “unscrupulous elements whose motive is to mislead the public and attract unwanted sympathy from certain parties outside the country .”

Mr. Makinde’s role in the G-5 also antagonized loyal PDP leaders in the state who vowed to punish him for his anti-party activities by fighting his re-election bid. One of the PDP leaders is Hazeem Gbolarumi, former deputy governor and coordinator of Atiku’s presidential campaign in Oyo State.

With Mr. Gbolarumi as a party leader such as the former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Wole Oyelese, and Femi Babalola who earlier stated that Mr. Makinde himself when he chose to work for APC in the presidential election.

They can express their grievances against the governor at the polls on Saturday.

“Some people may decide not to come out to vote on Saturday, others may say nothing but refuse to work in the party for the same reason,” said Musliudeen Adebayo, an Ibadan-based journalist.

The activities of PDP Vanguard, a pressure group in the party in the country, supported Mr. Adebayo’s prediction. Last week, the group on Twitter, @pdpvanguard, announced its support for the APC candidate, Mr. Folarin, saying that over 190,000 members will vote for him. Mr. Folarin, through his media aide, Yakeen Olaniyi, welcomed the development, calling on other political parties to save the country from Mr. Makinde.

However, Mr. Olatunji said Saturday’s election would be different and witness a large turnout for the PDP candidate. According to him, Oyo voters love the governor and know that they should choose their own personality as president. He said the APC is taking advantage of the situation to commit irregularities in the federal legislative elections. “We will challenge the violation in court and in the end we will win back some of the seats we claimed to have won,” Mr. Olatunji said.

Teslim Folarin Challenge

With the presidential victory in the kitty, will APC allow its gubernatorial candidate to fail in Saturday’s election? Mr. Folarin’s tested political wisdom takes inspiration from the famous amala politics of Lamidi Adedibu. He was a ranking senator and was once the Leader of the Senate. He is one of the leading candidates and for his followers and supporters, this is his best chance to win and become the governor.

The current of the bandwagon may move the vote in the direction of Saturday. With the APC winning the presidential election, expectations are predictable.

But Mr. Folarin has to deal with internal wranglings in the party in the state.

He must also undo the loss of Mr. Adelabu, who was accompanied out of APC to Accord party by many members whose influence cannot be underestimated.

Insiders said Mr Folarin’s role in the crisis during the party congress will haunt him on Saturday. Sources close to the party told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr. Folarin’s grip on the party structure and the governorship ticket has made party members distrust him.

“Most of them only came out to campaign because of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. They are not ready to extend their support to the governor,” the source said.

However, it has been gathered that Mr. Folarin has been trying to reconcile aggrieved members of the party, which led to the withdrawal of litigation against the party through the primaries. With these achievements, he looks confident of giving the incumbent a run for his money on Saturday.

Ladoja Endorsement

More heartening for the APC aspirant is the encouragement he received from former governor, Rasheed Ladoja, who endorsed his ticket. Mr Ladoja has galvanized the coalition that brought Mr Makinde to power in 2019. Although he had been passive in the build-up to Saturday’s election, he told his supporters to vote for Mr Folarin. But it was left to Mr. Folarin to weave the necessary sentiments around this happiness to strive for the highest score in the right votes on Saturday.

A rematch for Adelabu

Mr. Adelabu, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, lost to Mr. Makinde in the 2019 governorship election when he ran on the platform of the APC. He polled 357,982 votes while Mr. Makinde polled 515,621 votes in an election contested by 42 candidates. This time, he lost his bid for APC ticket and switched to Accord party.

He benefited greatly from the post-primary crisis in the PDP and APC, with several leaders crossing over from the two parties to join him in the campaign. However, there are doubts about the structure and power of the new party.

His followers believe that he would have won in 2019 but for the coalition of opposition parties supporting the current governor.

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“The coalition is no more for the governor,” said Bolaji Tunji, a former member of the APC who also crossed over to the Accord. “He will get sympathy this time and win convincingly.”

Mr. Tunji, who also spoke for the party, argued that the APC candidate is also not a threat to the party’s candidate, as the victory he secured on Saturday was attributed to a large number of votes for Mr. Tinubu.

Mr. Adelabu’s experience from the 2019 election will certainly count. But he will be affected by the lack of support from the favored powerhouse APC in the 2019 election.

The power of the electorate

Incidentally, the three leading candidates have roots in Ibadan. The five urban local government areas of Ibadan have a total of 987,548 registered voters, about 30 percent of the country’s total. The councils are Ibadan North, Ibadan North East, Ibadan North West, Ibadan South East, and Ibadan South West.

There are also six semi-urban councils in the capital. These are Akinyele, Egbede, Ido, Oluyole, Lagelu and Ona Ara. They have a combined voting population of 790,594, which represents 24 percent of the voting population in the country.

Coming to the summit in these 11 local government areas could determine who becomes the next governor of Oyo State. The three main candidates are claiming popularity and the presidential election forecasts are sure to set the stage for Saturday’s results.

Meanwhile, the Union of Nigerian Journalists in Oyo State called on politicians to play the rules and also charged INEC “to correct all the anomalies reported during the last election on February 25, 2023, and ensure the governorship poll is more organized with the desired result. be free, fair , transparent and trustworthy.”