Fears about Nigeria’s forthcoming elections, By Uche Igwe

There will be massive vote buying in the upcoming elections. The scale may vary, and the amount of money required may increase. A good effort to redesign the currency may reduce it but it will not eliminate it. However, it can be counterproductive in some cases. With increasing fuel shortages and limited availability of new notes, citizens are becoming hungry and angry. Some may sell their votes out of desperation.

There are signs that the upcoming elections will be different, and the people may be different, even as signs of tension and anxiety continue to spread across the landscape. A tectonic shift in the interests of voters in these states and the issues that stimulate those interests can make all the difference. Political actors are worried but seem determined to do everything in their power to disrupt the impending changes, so that everything can work. For the first time in the history of elections in Nigeria, the political elites seem to be in chaos, because they do not seem to have coalesced sufficiently around their collective interests. The rising temperature of identity politics, the appearance of new actors, and the determination of young people to ensure that their votes do not look good with traditional actors. In the sound of voices, they continue to disagree among themselves, throw verbal missiles at each other and create various conspiracy theories. From alleged sabotage from the ranks to rumors of a coup, concerns about the postponement of general elections and the impossibility of deviating to an interim government. Polity seems to be hot to the point of boiling. In the midst of the problems that arise, the three appear.

Violent Incidents Can Be Used To Suppress Voter Turnout

Spreading insecurity has been a constant feature of the current administration in Nigeria and this could lead to polls. In all parts of Nigeria, security challenges continue to spread. Therefore, it is easy to predict that politicians like to reduce voter turnout through sponsored violence. In some cities like Lagos, known thugs and gang leaders openly identify with certain political groups. In some cases, traditional rulers who are supposed to be non-partisan have openly declared their support for certain political parties. Others have subtly threatened attacks on citizens who do not vote in a certain direction. For instance, sporadic violence has started to occur in some parts of the southeast where unknown gunmen have attacked to prevent people from participating in elections, but only to listen to secession calls. Nigerian politicians are good at fueling tribal and religious conflagrations to fuel political ends. But this has reached a completely different level of being an open political strategy. Some states like Anambra, Imo, Rivers and Bornu have been flashpoints of electoral violence, and this may have affected voter turnout. Many local governments in the north of the country are now under the rule of terrorists and bandits. It is not clear whether election referees will risk personnel and material in disputed areas and whether votes will be valid on the ground.

Although BVAS has been piloted in elections in Osun and Anambra States, many voters, especially in local communities, need to know and may have challenges as to what constitutes the correct use of BVAS. Furthermore, there are indications that poor Internet connections can affect the functioning of rural areas…

Technology Glitches May Produce Unintended Consequences

The electronic transmission of votes through the Bimodal Voter Accreditation Scheme (BVAS) has been widely recognized as one of the efforts to reduce manipulation between polling units and collection centres. However, the technology is novel and not yet fully understood by voters. Although BVAS has been piloted in elections in Osun and Anambra States, many voters, especially in local communities, need to know and may have challenges as to what constitutes the correct use of BVAS. Furthermore, there are indications that poor Internet connections can affect their functioning in rural areas, and no one is convinced that there are viable alternatives. Mercantile agents can be used to interfere with the results to cheat.

Double-edged sword of non-availability of cash and scarcity of fuel

There will be massive vote buying in the upcoming elections. The scale may vary, and the amount of money required may increase. A good effort to redesign the currency may reduce it but it will not eliminate it. However, it can be counterproductive in some cases. With increasing fuel shortages and limited availability of new notes, citizens are becoming hungry and angry. Some may sell their votes out of desperation. Riots have erupted in Rivers, Ogun, Lagos and Oyo States, causing damage to banking facilities. Furthermore, the negative response and finger-pointing from many highly positioned politicians, especially in the ruling party, show that they will likely use more innovative strategies to induce voters.

Recent pronouncements, especially from the Supreme Court, do not indicate a sector that can be expected to be neutral or impartial in judging electoral matters. More visible for controversial and often partisan interests. Making the courts available to the highest bidder, often beyond the reach of ordinary people, remains one of the biggest threats to Nigeria’s democracy.

Judicial hand Take it Now Visible

The presence of an independent judiciary is an important factor for the health of democracy that many analysts tend to ignore. Justice remains a casualty and technicality has become a convenient jargon. Recent pronouncements, especially from the Supreme Court, do not indicate a sector that can be expected to be neutral or fair in judging electoral matters. More visible for controversial and often partisan interests. Making the courts available to the highest bidder, often beyond the reach of ordinary people, remains one of the biggest threats to Nigeria’s democracy. Punitive measures have become necessary but not enough to whip erring members of the court in order to avoid.

Can Free and Fair Elections Compensate for Buhari’s Failure?

Amidst multidirectional pressure, President Buhari appears determined to facilitate a free and fair general election. Despite the low popularity of the party’s presidential candidate, he seems unwilling to use the incumbency factor in leveraging the country’s architecture for an easier electoral victory. Many influential people in the president’s party were furious, and some openly criticized him as a saboteur. The outgoing Nigerian president may be bent on ensuring that he delivers a clean election. Surely citizens who are sickened by the consequences of poor performance in office will be forgiven if they allow the voice of the people to prevail in free and fair elections in the coming days and weeks.

Uche Igwe is a Senior Political Economy Analyst and Visiting Fellow at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He can be reached through ucheigwe@gmail.com