Fact-checking claims made by Bola Tinubu at NESG dialogue

Former governor of Lagos State and presidential hopeful Bola Tinubu was recently a guest at the Summit House, headquarters of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

Mr. Tinubu said in NESG presidential dialogueplatform for informed engagements with presidential candidates in the current state of the economy.

Mr. Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, spoke on his economic agenda and plans to tackle the core problems beleaguering the Nigerian economy if he is elected president of Nigeria.

Due to the dissemination of Mr. Tinubu’s claim by the mainstream media and the potential impact on the decision of the electorate, DUBAWA must review the claim.

Claim 1

Claim: Lagos State is the fifth largest economy in Africa

Verification: In one 2021 reportThe Lagos Bureau of Statistics said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Lagos N26.5 trillionequivalent to $59.7 billion, using the official exchange rate of N445.

Data released by world bank shows that Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, with a GDP of $440 billion. South Africa’s GDP was $419.9 billion; Egypt $404 billion; Algeria $167.9; Morocco $142.8; Ethiopia $111.2 billion; $110 billion in Kenya; Ghana $77.5 billion; Cote d’Ivoire $69.7 billion; Tanzania $67.8 billion; and Angola $67.4 billion. With a GDP of $59.7 million, Lagos ranks 12th in Africa. Therefore, there is no evidence to clearly state that Lagos State is the fifth largest economy in Africa, as claimed by Mr. Tinubu.

Verdict: False

Source: World Bank and Lagos State Bureau of Statistics

Claim 2

Claim: Lagos State generated N600 million in 1999.

Verification: Data from Central Bank of Nigeria and Social Science Research Academy, Lagos-based online newspaper, The Cable, reported that Lagos Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of N14.6 billion in 1999, representing a monthly average of N1.2 billion. The Guardian too report that Lagos IGR in 1999 stood at N14.6 billion.

However, when Mr. Tinubu left office in 2007, the figure rose to N83.02 billion, a monthly average of N6.9 billion. Between 1999 and 2007, the growth rate of IGR Lagos was 468.63 percent, showing a reasonable increase.

There is no data to support the claim that Lagos generated N600 million in 1999.

Verdict: False

Sources: TheCable and The Guardian

Claim 3

Claim: Lagos State generates over 50 billion monthly

Verification: Latest data from District Central Statistics Agency (NBS) stated that in 2021 Lagos state when N753 billion in IGR, representing 40 percent of the total IGR generated by the 36 states of the federation in the year.

The statistics office said this in the IGR 2021 report published in 2022.

In addition, in 2020, Nigeria’s commercial hub if N660 billion and N646 billion in 2019.

This means that Lagos State generated an average of N56 billion per month between 2019 and 2021.

Verdict: Correct

Source: National Statistics and Business Office

CLAIMS 4

Claim: The majority of Nigerians are young

Verification: With a population of approx 206 million in 2020Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and seventh in the world.

The country population increases at 2.6% per year, one of the fastest rates globally. At this rate, Nigeria’s population could double in the next 25 to 30 years.

The country has the largest youth population in the world, with an average age of 18.1 years. About 70% of the population is less than 30, and 42% is under 15, according to the latest elaboration of Worldometer. United Nations data.

Based on the data, the majority of Nigeria’s population is young people.

Verdict: Correct

Source: Premium Times, United Nations, Worldometer

Researchers produced this fact under the Dubawa 2023 Kwame Karikari Fellowship in partnership with Premium Times to facilitate the ethos of truth in journalism and promote media literacy in the country.