Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming since 1970s, study finds

Scientists with oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil made highly accurate predictions about global warming, even as the company made public statements contradicting the scientists’ own conclusions, a new study finds.

A study published in the journal Science found that Exxon-funded research not only confirmed what climate scientists were saying at the time, but also used more than a dozen different computer models that predicted future warming with equal or greater precision. better than the government and academia. scientist.

This is at the same time that oil companies are publicly doubting that warming is real and dismissing the accuracy of climate models.

Exxon has defended itself, saying that understanding of climate change has evolved over the years and that critics have misunderstood the company’s previous research.

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Scientists, governments, activists and news sites, including Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times, reported a few years ago that “Exxon knew” about the science of climate change from around 1977 all the while the public was casting doubt.

What the new study does is detail Exxon-funded research – from 63 percent to 83 percent of its projections meet strict standards for accuracy and most predict that the world will warm by about 0.2 C per decade.

The Exxon-funded science is “truly astonishing” in its precision and accuracy, said study co-author Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard professor of the history of science. He called the company “hypocritical given Exxon Mobil’s massive disinformation over the years … a claim that climate models are unreliable.”

The study’s lead author Geoffrey Supran, who started working at Harvard and is now a professor of environmental science at the University of Miami, said this was different from what had previously been found in documents about oil companies.

“Our analysis really made the deal about ‘Exxon knows’,” Supran said. It “provides airtight evidence that Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming years in advance, then turned around and attacked the underlying science.”

The paper quoted Exxon CEO Lee Raymond as saying in 1999 that the future climate was “a projection based on unproven climate models, or more often speculation,” while his successor in 2013 called the models “incompetent.”

The company defended itself, stating that the facts were misrepresented

Company spokesman Todd Spitler said Exxon’s understanding of climate science was developed alongside the broader scientific community, and four decades of research into climate science resulted in more than 150 papers, including 50 peer-reviewed publications.

“This issue has come up many times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Spitler said in an emailed statement.

“Some have sought to misrepresent Exxon Mobil’s facts and position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by reframing well-intended internal policy debates as corporate disinformation campaigns.”

Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous lawsuits claiming the company knew about the damage oil and gas would do to the climate, but misled the public by spreading doubt about climate change. In the latest lawsuit, New Jersey accuses five oil and gas companies including Exxon of lying to the public for decades when they learned about climate-threatening fossil fuels.

University of Illinois professor emeritus of atmospheric scientists Donald Wuebbles told The Associated Press that in the 1980s he worked with Exxon-funded scientists and was not surprised by what the company or the models knew. That’s what science and people who research this problem know.

“It’s clear that Exxon Mobil knows what’s going on,” Wuebbles said. “The problem is at the same time, they’re paying people to spread misinformation. That’s a big problem.”