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The hangings of Iranian protesters – and the display of lifeless bodies hanging from cranes – appeared frightening enough to keep people off the streets after months of anti-government unrest.
The success of the crackdown on the worst political unrest in years may have reinforced the view among Iran’s hardline rulers that the suppression of dissent is a way to maintain power.
That achievement may not last long, however, according to analysts and experts who spoke to Reuters. He said the country’s resort to deadly violence was simply to drive dissent underground while angering ordinary Iranians felt against the clerical establishment that had ruled for four decades.
“It’s been quite successful because the number of people on the streets has decreased,” said Saeid Golkar of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, referring to the crackdown and executions.
“However, it has created a great resentment among Iranians.”
The main focus of the establishment is to intimidate the population into submission at any cost, said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Human Rights Campaign in Iran.
“Protests have been various, but they have not ended. People are in prison or already on the ground because they are determined to find a way to continue fighting,” he said.
The execution of Iranian protesters has quelled the unrest in the streets, but analysts say the peace may be short-lived.
Defying public outrage and international criticism, Iran has handed down dozens of death sentences to intimidate Iranians angered by the death of 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.
His death in the custody of the morality police in September 2022 sparked years of public anger, over issues ranging from economic hardship and discrimination against ethnic minorities to tightening social and political control.
At least four people have been hanged since the demonstrations began, according to the court, including two protesters on Saturday for allegedly killing members of the volunteer Basij militia.
Amnesty International said last month that Iranian authorities had sought the death penalty for at least 26 others in what it called “fake trials designed to intimidate protesters.”
The move reflects what experts say is the religious leader’s consistent approach to government since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought him to power — a willingness to use whatever force is necessary to crush dissent.
“The regime’s main strategy is always winning through terrorism. Repression is the regime’s only solution because it is incompetent and incapable of reform or good governance,” said Golka.
Economic hardship
The protests, which have intensified since the hanging, have been strongest in Iran’s Sunni-populated areas and are now mostly confined to those areas.
But, analysts say, the revolutionary spirit that took root across the country during months of protests may have survived the security crackdown — not least because protesters’ grievances remain unaddressed.
With economic woes deepening, largely due to US sanctions over Tehran’s disputed nuclear works, many Iranians are feeling the pain of inflation and rising unemployment.
Inflation has soared to more than 50 percent, the highest level in decades. Youth unemployment remains high with more than 50 percent of Iranians pushed below the poverty line, according to a report by Iran’s Statistics Center.
“There is no turning point [back to the status quo]and the regime cannot return to the era before Mahsa’s death,” Ghaemi said.
Protesters gathered late Sunday outside a prison in the northern Iranian city of Karaj amid reports that two inmates had been moved to solitary confinement ahead of their execution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that Tehran is seeking repression and violence as a way out of this crisis.
“It may work in the short term but … it will not work in the long term,” Vatanka said, citing reasons such as Iran’s deteriorating economy and a fearless young population who want “big political changes, and they will fight .”
There are no signs that President Ebrahim Raisi or other leaders are trying to create new policies to try to win over the people. However, their attention seems to be focused on security.
The clerical leadership appears to be worried that reining in the protesters could make them appear weak among their political and paramilitary supporters, analysts said.
Reuters could not reach an official in Raisi’s office for comment.
Golkar said an additional motive for the execution was the leadership’s need to satisfy its core supporters in organizations like the Basij, a volunteer militia that has been instrumental in fighting spontaneous and leaderless riots.
Khamenei supports the crackdown
“The regime wants to send a message to its supporters that it will support them in any way,” Golkar said.
To send shock waves, authorities imposed travel bans and jail terms on a range of public figures from athletes to artists and rappers. A karate champion was among those executed.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signaled on Monday that the country has no intention of reducing the violence, saying in a televised address that those who “set fire to public places have committed treason without a doubt.”
Uncompromising use of state power has been a central theme of Raisi’s career. He is under US sanctions in the past which includes what the United States and activists say is his role in overseeing the killing of thousands of political prisoners in the 1980s.
When asked about the killings in the 1980s, Raisi told reporters shortly after the elections in 2021 that he should be praised for defending public safety.
Ghaemi said the key officials who pushed for today’s executions were deeply involved in the killings of prisoners in the 1980s.
“But this isn’t the 1980s when you do all these crimes in the dark,” he said. “Everything he did was on social media and it attracted huge international attention.”
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