In the last four weeks of 2022, Eskom set four new lows in a row for its energy availability factor (EAF). It is a measure of power utility used globally to report the amount of available generation capacity, maintenance and unplanned breakdowns.
The signs were there in early December when, in practical terms, Eskom was forced to remove 7 000MW from demand – the equivalent of Stage 7 load shedding in all but name.
So critical there is a situation that delays the planned maintenance outage in one Koeberg unit by a few days to bring stability to the box.
At that stage, Eskom’s average EAF for the week was 51.53% – meaning 48.5% of total generation capacity was offline. The following week, this dropped to 50.71%. Then 50.26% until Christmas day.
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And in the last week of the year, Eskom’s EAF fell to 49.1% – below 50% for the first time.
In round numbers, Eskom has a capacity of 48 000MW (49 000MW if the independent power producers of the open cycle gas turbines at Avon and Dedisa are included, which Eskom sometimes does and sometimes doesn’t).
This means that as most South Africans work on holiday, with mines, factories and construction sites closed, Eskom has less than 24 000MW of capacity (about 23 660MW, to be more specific).
We understand that one Koeberg unit is inactive, but other resources (apart from coal), including pumped storage schemes, hydro and imports are all online.
This means availability in Eskom’s current baseload coal fleet is less than 40%.
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Independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson showed a chart on January 1 that confirms that the average capacity factor for coal (in a 24-hour moving average) is below 40% – and as low as 37% – for almost the second half of the last month.
Damage and partial load loss (when the unit produces less power than its capacity) are the main causes of ‘unavailability’. In week 49 (from December 5), this has spiked to an average of 35.31%, which means that approximately 17 000MW capacity is offline at any given time in seven days.
The damage has increased
In 2021, the percentage of breakdowns in Eskom’s generation fleet will exceed 30% (on average) in just one week. Last year, the number was 24 weeks, and exceeded 35% in both. No wonder 2022 is a record year for unburdening.
Despite the severity of the power system, Eskom is deliberately carrying out planned maintenance during the festive season.
In a typical year, this time is used to take more units offline for repairs than normal, but this year’s number increased from 11% (± 5 500MW) to 17% (± 8 000MW) in December.
A portion of this refund – around 1.9% – includes an outage in one Koeberg unit. But other Koeberg units have been offline since mid-January until the return much-late in September, so that the percentage has been in the maintenance figures for many years. However, the utility’s EAF for 2022 is the lowest: 58%.
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Chris Yelland from EE Business Intelligence stated on Twitter at the end of December that the “aspiration” by the Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan or the chairman of Eskom Mpho Makwana “for the average EAF in 2023 to reach 65%, or even higher. than 60%’ is not realistic “.
He explained that “EAF averages about 90 generators”. Plotting the smooth trend line on the resulting graph, it is clear that the trend is near-disaster. The experience of shedding the burdens of everyday life is proof.
He points out that “sudden (non-continuous) changes in the trend line are impossible, and the down trend line must level out and go down before starting the up trend again”.
At least the government, at least ‘informally’ or ‘unofficially’, no longer talks about the 75% EAF target, which is used by the Integrated Resource Plan (2019). If Eskom manages 60% EAF this year, there must so less open shedding than in 2022. But even that is about.
Oh, and CEO Andre de Ruyter left in March and COO Jan Oberholzer retired in April…
A leadership vacuum or instability is the last thing Eskom needs.
This article originally appeared on Moneyweb and is republished with permission.
Read the original article here.
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