Erdogan’s Victory in Turkey’s Presidential Election: Key Takeaways

The re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given him five more years to expand his conservative footprint in Turkish society and realize his ambitions to increase the country’s economic and geopolitical power.

Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council named Mr Erdogan the winner after Sunday’s round of elections. He won 52.1 percent of the vote against opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had 47.9 percent with almost all votes counted, the council said.

The election is being closely watched by Turkey’s NATO allies, including the United States, which often see Mr. Erdogan as a frustrated partner because of his anti-Western rhetoric and close ties with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, which have grown since the Russian invasion. from Ukraine.

Mr Erdogan has given no indication that he plans to change his policy abroad, where he has sought to use Turkey’s place at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East to expand his influence, or at home, where he has consolidated his power. hand and respond to the inflation crisis with unconventional measures that the economy said exacerbated the problem.

Challenging him in the election is a newly united opposition that has declared the election a make-it-or-break-it moment for Turkish democracy. The opposition candidate, Mr Kilicdaroglu, is running as the anti-Erdogan, vowing to restore civil liberties and improve relations with the West. He bills himself as another in touch with the struggle of common people.

Here are some key takeaways:

The crisis broke but did not break Erdogan.

This is the most challenging election in the 20 years Mr Erdogan has been Turkey’s most popular politician, serving as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. Before early voting, most opinion polls suggested a tight race with Mr Kilicdaroglu in the lead.

Analysts cite several reasons why Mr. Erdogan may be struggling. Anger over the painful cost-of-living crisis turned some voters against him. A powerful earthquake in February killed more than 50,000 people and destroyed hundreds of buildings in southern Turkey. Many survivors of the quake complained about the government’s initial slow response when the damage was done, raising questions about whether Mr Erdogan’s rush to develop the country had spurred unsafe construction.

Turkey’s historically fractious opposition set aside its differences to come together behind Mr. Kilicdaroglu and support that changes are necessary to stop the country’s slide into one-man rule.

Mr Erdogan came to power 20 years ago in anger at the government’s disastrous response to an earthquake near Istanbul in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people. So many expect this year’s earthquake to also damage their position.

But there are some indications that they are doing so.

Mr Erdogan is out in eight of the 11 provinces affected by the February earthquake. The ruling Justice and Development Party and its political allies fared better, winning a majority of votes in simultaneous parliamentary elections in all the quake-hit provinces.

Participation in the earthquake zone was also high, despite concerns that many voters displaced by the damage will struggle to return home to vote as needed. Although participation in the 11 provinces affected by the earthquake was lower than the 88.9 percent of eligible voters nationally, none of the provinces saw turnout below 80 percent.

Interviews with earthquake survivors reveal many reasons why the disaster did not change their political views. Some described the earthquake as an act of God that the government had to deal with. Others whose homes were destroyed said they had more faith in Mr Erdogan to rebuild the affected areas than in his challenger.

The threat of terrorism resonated with voters.

Mr. Erdogan undermined the opposition by portraying its leaders as weak and incompetent, but one line of attack proved more potent: accusations that he would be soft on terrorism.

The president has repeatedly made this argument to voters, based on the opposition that has received support from Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. The government has often accused the party of collaborating with militants from Turkey’s Kurdish minority who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades, seeking autonomy.

Mr. Erdogan even went so far as to release a video at a planned rally showing the militant leader singing along to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s campaign song. Many voters trust him, saying in interviews that they don’t trust the opposition to keep the country safe.

International observers reported no large-scale problems with the process of collecting and counting votes during the first round, considering the process to be free.

But they noted Mr. Erdogan’s outstanding advantages before the vote began, including his ability to release billions of dollars in state spending to try to offset the negative effects of inflation and other economic strains and the overwhelmingly positive media coverage the country has received. -funded broadcasters.

Late on Sunday, Mr. Kilicdaroglu did not dispute the vote count, but told his supporters that the general election had been “one of the most unfair electoral processes in recent years.”

Many in the political opposition fear that the closeness of the race will lead Mr Erdogan to beat his political opponents more aggressively to avoid stiff challenges in the future.

Economists warn that Mr. Erdogan is using expensive short-term tactics to insulate voters from inflation and prevent the value of the national currency from sinking. But he couldn’t stay forever.

Turkey’s foreign currency reserves have fallen sharply, meaning the country could lose its ability to repay foreign creditors. And since so much money has been spent on keeping the currency stable, its value could dive if that spending stops.

Mr Erdogan gave no indication during the campaign that he planned to change his economic policy, despite high inflation, which economists say has been exacerbated by the insistence on lowering interest rates rather than raising them to fight inflation, as orthodox economists do. suggest.

So regardless of what movement Mr. Erdogan wants to prioritize at the beginning of the new term, the risk of currency crisis or recession is likely to get attention.

Gulsin Harman contributed reporting from Ankara, Turkey.