There are so many asylum seekers in the town of Sankt Pölten in the north-east of Austria, thunder chief of the right-wing Freedom Party region, that the “second Sankt Pölten” will soon have to be built.
“This raises the question of what to call it,” Udo Landbauer continued as he gave a speech outside the police station in the small town of Nickelsdorf on the Hungarian border: “Sankt Islamabad or Rape Town?”
Only a few months ago such inflammatory language, aimed at fueling prejudices among Austrians about immigrants, became a rarity in the country’s political currents. But the Freedom Party (FPÖ) is gaining momentum amid fears about the cost of living and migration, and EU member states are shifting to the right again.
Shortly after Landbauer’s November speech, polls showed the FPÖ had become the most popular party in Austria. The latest survey last month showed it was the first choice of around 28 percent of voters, up from 11 percent in mid-2020.
That compares with 25 percent for the opposition, the Social Democrats, and 21 percent for the center-right People’s party (ÖVP), which forms a coalition with the Green party. The Greens were supported by 10 percent.
“The point is [FPÖ] message, which is all about ‘we are down here versus him there’, was in the ashes a few years ago,” said Thomas Hofer, an Austrian political analyst. “But the Freedom Party has carefully revived and now has a very large number .”
Pamela Rendi-Wagner’s Social Democratic Party approved the decision to block the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU’s Schengen free travel area © Christian Bruna/EPA-EFE
On December 8, the Austrian government blocked the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to Europe’s Schengen free travel area – a controversial move condemned by many liberal businesses and politicians, as well as European allies. The decision was almost entirely due to the ÖVP’s fear of an FPÖ revival, party insiders and government policymakers told the Financial Times.
The Social Democrats, meanwhile, approved the decision even though party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has spent the summer insisting that the migration crisis is a myth.
The FPÖ is set to record more concrete gains this month: the once-dominant ÖVP is expected to lose control of the Lower Austrian state government in a bellwether regional election. The loss of the region, which includes Sankt Pölten, would damage the ÖVP because Lower Austria is the political heart of the party’s leader, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
It has been five years since the FPÖ was last in government, as a junior coalition partner alongside the ÖVP. The experiment ended 18 months later when FPÖ leader and former vice chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache was caught on tape trying to solicit Russian money in exchange for political favors.
Former chancellor Sebastian Kurz, leader of the ÖVP party, never recovered from the scandal, and after the investigation by prosecutors spread to questions about the activities of his own colleagues, he resigned.
In the meantime, the FPÖ – a long-standing fixture of Austrian politics, with 66 years of experience and five stints in the national government – is quietly rebuilding its support. Austria’s next general election should be held at the end of next year.
The electorally risky opposition to the Covid-19 pandemic ban – dismissed by centrists at the time as crankery – evolved into a broader anti-establishment policy platform that has re-energized the party.
This winter’s inflation and the energy crisis – Austria used to be heavily dependent on Russian gas – increased its popularity among disaffected voters. With immigration once again on the rise, some pollsters believe the stage is set for a resurgence of the FPÖ at the forefront of Austrian politics.
“The turnout is very, very bad right now,” said Marcus How, head of research at political risk consultancy VE Insight. “The landscape is ripe for populists to take advantage of.”
Freedom party billboard in Wiener Neudorf, Lower Austria. The region went to the polls on January 29 © EPA-EFE
The FPÖ’s playbook is not new, but the scale of the social and economic problems facing Austria – which are common to many of its European neighbors – means political uncertainty is greater than ever, according to analysts.
An annual poll, conducted by the social research institute Sora at the end of November, shows Austrians’ faith in the democratic system has declined. In 2018, the poll showed that two-thirds of Austrians were satisfied with their country’s political system and institutions. A 2022 survey shows two-thirds now disapprove of him.
According to How, the situation is less a result of the FPÖ’s success than the failure of the political center. “The FPÖ is almost in first place by default,” he said, citing the corruption crisis, the lack of ministerial talent and the bunker-like mentality of the chancellor.
However, attempts by the political stream to win back electoral credibility by plagiarizing the FPÖ strategy may be counterproductive, he added.
“If you have the Social Democrats and the People’s Party copying the FPÖ, proposing populist solutions to complex problems, why would voters copy the copycats and not the real thing?” said.