Energized opposition and poor economy could spell defeat for Turkey’s long-time leader

In front of an opposition rally in the Turkish industrial city of Bursa on May 11, a group of women lined up behind a metal fence waving flags and chanting about the cost of potatoes and onions.

“Erdogan must go!” they shouted.

The rally, which drew thousands of people, was held days before Turkey votes in what it calls a pivotal election that could end Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20 years in power and usher in a new political era.

The rising cost of onions, a kitchen staple, has become a symbol of Turkey’s rampant inflation and a fixture in political ads for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

A 74-year-old former civil servant, Kılıçdaroğlu leads a six-party alliance that has united in a bid to defeat Erdogan in the presidential election, which is due on May 14. The National Assembly will be held at the same time.)

“We have to change our country – right now, it’s too bad,” said Serif Cetinkaya, 18, one of about five million young people who will vote for the first time in the presidential election.

“This will be a historic election for Turkish citizens,” said Seren Sevin Korkmaz, executive director of the Istanbul Institute for Political Research. “It is not just about choosing a presidential candidate or a political party, but it is a choice for the future of Turkey.”

A tight race

The latest polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has a narrow lead over Erdogan, which may be widening. opposition candidate with support sparsely out of the race this week.

There is a real possibility that none of the presidential candidates will exceed the 50 percent threshold needed for victory, thus forcing a second round of elections, which will take place on May 28.

Turkish society is polarized between two political camps and played out under heavy police presence at high-energy rallies held daily during political campaigns.

Erdogan, 69, is a populist with loyal supporters, but he and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) face criticism at home and abroad.

He is accused of mismanaging the economy and accelerating inflation, while undermining state institutions by squeezing the central bank and controlling much of the media.

The election also comes three months after a devastating earthquake in southeastern Turkey killed 50,000 people and displaced more than three million. After the disaster, Erdogan’s government was criticized for not sending a search team sooner.

Korkmaz said that after Erdogan was first elected in 2003, he was praised for the country’s economic growth and infrastructure boom. He also strengthened international relations, especially with the European Union, and strengthened Turkey’s position as a regional power at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

In 2005, Erdogan started accession talks with the EU, but as the years progressed, he stopped, because EU officials call “negative style” in Turkey when it comes to the rule of law and fundamental rights. The European Commission accused the country of a “democratic retreat.”

Korkmaz said that in recent years, Erdogan has turned the country into an autocracy, especially after the attempted coup in 2016 that left more than 250 people died. There is a crackdown on dissent – opposition politicians and activists have faced arrest and jail time, and of course independent institutions like the judiciary have been weakened in an effort to support Erdogan’s power.

In 2017, the population of Turkey narrowly approved transition from the parliamentary system to the presidential system, the result of the referendum in which European observers believe that millions of votes may have been manipulated.

The following year, Erdogan was re-elected and sworn in as president.

Centralized power was an early political advantage for Erdogan, but Korkmaz said it has since turned into a weakness, as people blame Erdogan directly for his “fragile economy and unbalanced foreign policy.”

Rampant inflation

Erdogan, who has promised to keep interest rates low forever, has put pressure on the central bank to adopt what many economists say is an unorthodox policy to combat rising inflation. Between 2019 and 2021, Erdogan’s government fired three central bank governors, which damaged Turkey’s financial credibility and weakened its currency, the lira. Inflation peaked last fall at 85 percent.

Official inflation is currently at 44 percent. As a point of comparison, in the UK it is just over 10 per cent.

At a small market in Bursa on Thursday, shoppers examined the fruits and vegetables on wooden tables – and the price tags attached. Some who spoke to CBC News said they can’t afford regular groceries, and that the cost of living in general has skyrocketed.

“[The government] don’t think about us. He thought about filling it [bank accounts]”says Aytekin Sasmaz. He showed CBC a plastic bag of onions, which before would cost the same as 25¢ Cdn, and now costs about $2.50.

“I think that on May 14, the system and the government will change,” Sasmaz said.

The person who can defeat Erdogan

At a political rally in this city of three million later that evening, Kemal Kilicdaroglu making a heart line with his hands, representing a large crowd of people making the same symbol.

“Spring is coming to Turkey,” he shouted into the microphone. “We will replace the totalitarian regime through democracy.”

Among other things, Kılıçdaroğlu promised to eliminate polarization in this country of 85 million, and people will live freely and “tweet without fear.”

His campaign revolved around the idea of ​​rebuilding democracy, but he also promised to deliver more three million Syrian refugees remain in Turkey at home, adding that he is free to return as a “tourist.”

In an interview with Reuters, Kılıçdaroğlu said he wants to strike a balance when it comes to foreign relations with Russia, which is accused of meddling in Turkish elections. Moscow has denied this.

Kılıçdaroğlu said that unlike Erdogan’s government, he would actively consult with the foreign minister and support NATO expansion. Turkey has stopped Sweden’s NATO offer for trying to force the Nordic countries to extradite alleged militants suspected by Turkey of links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by the EU, the US and the UK.

While Turkey’s close relationship with Russia has caused some friction among the NATO alliance, Erdogan has also been praised by the UN for helping broker a deal to facilitate grain shipments out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

Presidential base

Many of Erdogan’s supporters consider him irreplaceable. At a massive rally in Istanbul on Friday, people crowded the streets because there was not enough room for the president’s thousands of fans near the mosque where the event was held.

“We love him very much,” said Dilara Emec, 20. She and her boyfriend, Omer Furkan, admit the bad economy is not the reason they voted for Erdogan.

“You can find bread, you can find onions or potatoes, but you can’t find a country like this, a leader like him,” Furkan said.

Erdogan attended the rally after helping to open a newly built mosque. During the campaign, he has defended his economic policies while opposing LGBTQ people and his opposition to what he says are terrorists. Erdogan insisted he was ready to protect the country as he did after the 2016 coup attempt.

A day earlier, protesters threw stones at the mayor of Istanbul, an opposition candidate campaigning in a city mostly loyal to Erdogan’s party.

“We need to get rid of this polarization,” said Ertim Orkun, president of the Istanbul-based organization Vote and Beyond. His team has recruited around 65,000 volunteers to monitor the roughly 200,000 polling stations in Turkey. Part of the exercise involves how to diffuse a heated argument.

“We are trying to prepare [workers] psychologically … ‘being a calm, cool person. Just try to neutralize the room.'”

Orkun expects tension and even anger after the ballots are counted this weekend, but dismissed fears of protests turning violent. He disagrees with all the talk about the history of this election.

“Every time we have an election, we keep saying the same thing: ‘This is the most important election.'”