Five years ago, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk launched his personal Tesla Roadster (and its occupant, a mannequin named Starman) into space.
The historic launch – the first car launched into space – took place at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on February 6, 2018.
On the fifth anniversary of its launch, Starman completed almost 3.3 orbits around the Sun – if it’s still one, that is…
Space Tesla Elon Musk
according to WhereIsRoadster.com, the car’s location at the time of publication was 327,412,126 km (approximately 2,189 AU) from Earth.
It is currently moving towards earth at a speed of 10,173 km/h. Debate over whether or not Tesla will hit Earth…
Will the Roadster return to Earth?
In 2018, an astrophysicist at the University of Toronto in Canada, Hanno Rein, said that the car could hit the Sun, Venus, or Earth.
Based on the calculations, the probability of a collision with the Earth (and hopefully burning up in the atmosphere …) in the next 15 years is 22%. [1]
Do what you will…
the launch of the Tesla Roadster
The Tesla Roadster is attached to the upper stage of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy and launched into an elliptical orbit around the Sun.
In keeping with the theatrical form, Starman is dressed in a spacesuit and placed in the driver’s seat of a Tesla Roadster.
The car was able to escape Earth’s gravity by gaining enough speed to enter the elliptical heliocentric orbit of Mars.
However, the probability of hitting Mars is low. However, the Roadster will continue to orbit the Sun for the next (probably) millions of years.
On the journey around the Sun
In fact, the Roadster’s initial orbit brought it within 1.66 astronomical units (AU) of the Sun – AU being the distance between the Earth and the Sun.
That means the Roadster is closer to the Sun than Earth’s orbit.
Furthermore, this route will eventually take the Roadster (and Starman, of course) into the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
That said, the Roadster’s speed and trajectory make it highly unlikely that it will hit Earth or Mars, or any other planet in the Milky Way.
Space debris minefield
One thing is for sure: if Tesla is still one, it probably won’t look good.
Aside from exposure to the Sun’s extreme temperatures, there’s also the small matter of space debris – and there’s a lot of it floating around.
According to statistical models produced by ESA’s space debris office in December 2022, there are about 36,500 objects larger than 10cm floating in space, and 1 million objects between 1 and 10cm in size. [2]
Humanity is indeed a scourge, even in space, with most space debris due to accidents and failures, and even deliberate destruction.
Car interior condition
Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Waas, chair of the aerospace engineering program at the University of Michigan, said the tires would now be dry.
“Rubber can withstand quite high temperatures. It is also thermally cycled; [the] rubber can crack or dry out, becoming brittle,” he explained.
The same can be said for the leather interior of the car.
More fun facts
Do you know? The radio is playing Space Oddity in one of Starman’s ‘ears’, and Is there Life on Mars? in another.
If the current battery is still working, Starman would have heard the song 496 049 and 668 405 times.
Another fun fact: Since its launch in 2018, the Roadster has exceeded its 36,000 mile (about 58,000 kilometer) warranty about 70,040 times!
And finally, distance-wise, the Roadster has gone far enough to cross all the roads on Earth at least 63.1 times.
Source:
[1] Possible space car collision
[2] Inmarsat, studying space debris.