As millions cast their votes across the country on Wednesday, here’s what you need to know about the fight for each province:
The 2024 national and provincial elections are here, and millions are expected to cast their vote across the country.
While the ruling ANC is confident of keeping an outright majority, their lead has been slipping in recent years. Some analysts predict they may drop below 50% of the vote, with a coalition the most likely scenario in many projections.
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While predicting a winning party is easy in some provinces, it is a lot more difficult in others.
KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Western Cape will each see fierce contests for votes.
Here’s what you need to know about the fight for each province:
KZN
There could be actual blood in this battleground, with political killing rampant in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
Former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party may challenge the ANC and IFP in many areas of the province, particularly in the north and inland areas.
The DA won their first-ever municipality in KZN during the 2021 municipal elections, and may make inroads in urban areas.
The ANC has a presence throughout the province, but will hope to hold their grip on the southern part of the province, where it is dominant.
KZN is still a stronghold for the IFP and their influence may be growing. They scored 24.2% support in the 2021 elections and 16.34% in the last provincial elections. They currently run much of northern and inland KZN, including Zuma’s hometown of Nkandla with 57.1%
READ MORE ON THE KZN BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
GAUTENG
The province where everything changes in the blink of an eye.
The battle for the economic heart of the country has been a fierce one since the ANC lost control of the major metros in the province in the 2021 polls.
Since then, there have been horror coalitions and a mayoral merry-go-round in most chambers of the province.
The ANC will be hoping to claw back support to win the province outright and will be encouraged by the popularity of their premier Panyaza Lesufi.
The DA has made serious inroads in the province over the last few elections and with its coalition partners, may squeeze into power.
The EFF will likely be kingmakers in the province, as they have been in metros, and have a lot of support in the province. Who they back may rule Gauteng for the next five years.
READ MORE ON THE GAUTENG BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
WESTERN CAPE
The DA heartland may be challenged in this election, particularly among coloured and Indian voters amid the Gaza conflict.
The DA has been governing the Western Cape since the 2009 election. They grew their majority in 2014, but lost support in the 2019 election and dropped slightly more in 2021.
The ANC made inroads in the central and eastern part of the province last elections, while the Patriotic Alliance gained large support in the north.
Independent candidates polled third in the 2021 elections and will be something to watch out for.
READ MORE ON THE WESTERN CAPE BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
EASTERN CAPE
While the ANC’s support is on very shaky ground in most parts of the country, the party is likely to beat its opponents once more in the Eastern Cape in the upcoming general elections to regain control of its traditional heartland.
The home of Nelson Mandela and other popular past party leaders will likely stay in ANC hands.
However, the DA’s slim victory in Nelson Mandela Bay may hint at them consolidating and expanding their support in the western part of the province.
EFF is the third-most popular party in the province and will be hoping to be a kingmaker at very least.
READ MORE ON THE EASTERN CAPE BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
FREE STATE
The ANC will aim to build on their 2021 local government election victory, where they secured 50.61% of the vote, despite a decline in support compared to the 2016 polls.
In the municipal elections, the governing party received the most votes in each of the Free State’s 19 municipalities and retained control of its birthplace, the Mangaung metro.
READ MORE ON THE FREE STATE BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
LIMPOPO
If past provincial, national and recent by-elections, are any indication, the African National Congress (ANC) is poised for another clean sweep in Limpopo.
Of the 10 million votes the ANC got in the 2019 elections, just over one million of those were cast in Limpopo, representing a 77% support.
The EFF got 14% of the votes in the 2021 polls and created a centre of strength in the eastern part of the province.
They may look to a coalition to unseat the ANC but bar a massive political meltdown that would not be likely to change anything in the province.
READ MORE ON THE LIMPOPO BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
NORTHERN CAPE
The ANC is targeting a 62,78% victory in the province, building from their overwhelming win of 50.55% in the 2021 local government elections.
However, this will not come easily as some political parties aim to grow in South Africa’s least populated province.
The ANC retained four seats across four municipalities in the Northern Cape in three by-elections held over the past few months.
Despite this governing party’s support decreased in three of the municipalities when compared to the votes cast in the 2021 municipal elections.
READ MORE ON THE NORTHERN CAPE BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
MPUMALANGA
Mpumalanga remains an ANC stronghold, with the party having garnered 70.58% support in the last elections.
The EFF was the second-biggest party with 12.79% and the DA 9.77%.
However, recent by-elections in Mpumalanga indicate that the MK party may take some votes from the three parties.
READ MORE ON THE MPUMALANGA BATTLEGROUNDS HERE
NORTH WEST
The ANC won the North West in 2021, gaining 55.4 of the province’s total votes.
The EFF at 16% and DA at 11.39% made inroads in some areas, particularly in the centre and south of the province.
The Freedom Front Plus held a centre of support in the JB Marks and Mamusa areas but even if all three opposition parties work together it may not be enough to unseat the ANC in the province.