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Britain’s Conservative Party suffered a clear loss on Friday in local elections, preliminary results showed, in a vote seen as a harbinger of its strength. But the scale of the setback remains unclear, with thousands of regions still declaring winners.
The vote to determine control over hundreds of municipalities, which took place on Thursday across the UK, could be the biggest test of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s popularity ahead of the general election due in the fall of 2024 and possibly his last. 14 years of Conservative government.
With more than a quarter of the results announced, the Conservatives had lost more than 220 seats on Friday, with the main opposition Labor Party gaining more than 120 seats and the centrist Liberal Democrats also performing well, adding almost 60.
Conservative leaders, hoping to manage expectations, have predicted that the anti-incumbent mood will make some losses inevitable. Pollsters track the results to assess the size of the swing away from the Conservatives and extrapolate whether it will be enough to propel the Labor Party to victory in the general election.
Mr Sunak’s technocratic leadership has unsettled the party after a series of scandals last year forced the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and economic chaos has rocked the government of his successor, Liz Truss, who resigned after 44 days in Downing Street.
In recent weeks, the Conservative Party’s position in the polls has improved after a number of political successes for Mr Sunak, including a deal with the European Union over post-Brexit trade rules in Northern Ireland.
But his party still trails Labor by double digits in many opinion polls as inflation rises and the economy stagnates, while the country is beset by ongoing labor unrest and a crisis in the National Health Service.
There were early signs of trouble for the Tories on Monday. Labor seized control of two municipalities in the south of England previously held by the Conservatives: Plymouth on the south-west coast, and Medway, east of London.
Importantly, Labor also won in Stoke-on-Trent, in the center of the country, and won the mayoral contest in Middlesbrough in the north-east – both in areas known as “red walls”, which went to the Tories from Labour. in the last general election.
Voters in the deindustrialized region were drawn by Mr Johnson’s upbeat populist rhetoric and pledge to “Get Brexit done” in 2019, and Labor is fighting hard to recapture it, which will be a stepping stone to regaining power.
But while it’s a bad day for the Conservatives, it’s not clear whether Labor will take enough of the spoils to put it on track to win a clear majority in the general election.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey told the BBC his performance had exceeded all expectations. That will add to the Conservatives’ woes without necessarily guaranteeing a Labor victory next year.
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