The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which rolled back federal protection for access to abortion and led to many states limiting the procedure, is expected to lead to only a small increase in births in the coming year, according to the Congressional. Budget Office.
CBO, a nonpartisan agency that informs Congress how the proposed bill will affect the budget deficit, considered the impact of the 2022 decision – which reversed the court’s 1973 Roe v Wade decision – as part of the annual demographic projection.
Dobbs will lead to additional births on his own, CBO Director Phillip Swagel told reporters Wednesday. But the office expects other factors – including access to abortion drugs – almost entirely offset the increase.
“There will be more prescriptions, there will be more women crossing state lines for abortions and there will be more contraceptive use,” Swagel said.
“It all boils down to a modest increase in fertility,” he said. “Ultimately, it doesn’t change the demographic trajectory very much.”
At the report was released in Januarythe CBO forecast birth to increase by approximately 40,000 per year from 2023-2032 and 50,000 per year from 2043-2052. There is about 3.66 million births in the US in 2021.
“Ultimately, it doesn’t change our demographic trajectory very much.”
– CBO Director Phillip Swagel
The higher birth rate expected in the CBO report is due to more pregnant women having babies, as well as larger population estimates, which will be caused by immigration and various other factors.
The report cautions that CBO’s forecasts are uncertain and small errors “can add up.” several years and significantly alter demographic outcomes at the end of the projection period.
Meanwhile, the struggle for reproductive rights is far from over. Since the Dobbs decision, more and more states have passed total or near-total abortion bans, and some have since targeting access to medication abortion.