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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party on Saturday lost the only state government in India’s relatively prosperous south, the results of elections in Karnataka showed, in a boost to the struggling opposition ahead of next year’s general election.
The Indian National Congress, which ruled India for much of the time since independence before being sidelined by the rise of Mr. Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party, won a majority of seats in local assembly elections in Karnataka.
Home to more than 65 million people and India’s cash-rich tech hub, Karnataka is the only southern state where Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist party has been able to lead the government, an ideological push less welcome in parts of the country than Mr Modi. Modi’s fort in northern India.
With the majority of votes counted, the Congress party is expected to win at least 135 of the 224 assembly seats, which will easily form the government.
At the end of the campaign for the state, which saw a strong voter turnout of around 73 per cent, Mr Modi personally entered the race. He held about 20 rallies there, including some supporters offering flower petals as he passed an open car.
Making the election about the popular Mr Modi was a last-ditch effort, after the party’s usual efforts to polarize voters along religious lines – such as banning Muslim girls from wearing the headscarf as part of their school uniform – fell flat. to divert voters’ attention from allegations of local corruption among BJP members.
“We have not been able to make a mark despite a lot of efforts by everyone, from our prime minister,” said Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP’s state chief minister, conceding defeat on Saturday.
While a win in Karnataka could be a blow to the national opposition, which has been trying to bounce back after being defeated by Mr Modi’s party in the 2019 and 2014 national elections, analysts warn that the Congress will still face a strong opponent in Mr Modi. .Modi as he seeks a third term early next year.
Incumbents rarely win in Karnataka, where control has largely shifted between the Congress and the BJP in recent years. In local elections, caste rivalry and governance issues, such as corruption, loom large. Local preferences do not always translate into votes for the National Assembly in India’s parliamentary system, which determines who becomes prime minister.
Mr Modi’s popularity remains strong, with many voters in Karnataka – who voted against the local leader due to rising prices, corruption and political polarization – still showing affection for him.
At the national level, the Congress has struggled to match Mr Modi’s appeal.
Rahul Gandhi, the most recognized Congress leader and often referred to as a contender, built momentum by walking across India, covering 2,200 miles in four months.
But just as it appeared that he was tagging Mr. Modi on the rightful dynasty, and presenting himself as a credible leader who could join a coalition of skeptical regional allies to challenge Mr. Modi, the BJP is hounding him in a legal challenge.
An old and questionable defamation case has been revived in recent months, and a judge in Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat gave Gandhi the maximum sentence, removing him from his parliamentary seat. Mr Gandhi’s party has called the case a political conspiracy akin to match-fixing, and has been fighting to get him out of jail.
Aarti Jerath, a political commentator in New Delhi, said that while voting patterns in local elections did not directly translate into support for national elections, the Congress party would take lessons from the Karnataka victory – strengthen local leaders, and focus on campaigning. bread-and-butter issues instead of making it a popularity contest against the formidable Mr. Modi.
“This is a big morale boost for the Congress – its first win in a major state after several defeats,” he said.
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