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As can be seen from the general election time betting market punters are quite sure that there will be no contest this year.
While I think that this is true, I wouldn’t give it an 89% chance as the betting market suggests.
If there is some Tory recovery in the polls, you could see Sunak put under pressure to make the most of the situation and actually call an early election.
As I continue to say, I think the polls give a false picture of the current situation because of the practice of grossing up and ignoring those who say they have not made up their minds. At least one pollster has a calculation that involves inserting an ignorant Tory slab into a Tory column.
Mike Smithson
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