Is South Africa going to a situation where the country will be led by Paul Mashatile and Julius Malema. Mashatile is the current vice-president of the African National Congress (ANC) and will replace David Mabuza as the country’s second-in-command when President Cyril Ramaphosa’s long-awaited cabinet reshuffle finally takes place. Malema, on the other hand, has been the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) for almost 10 years. Political analyst Prince Mashele sparked a debate among South Africans this week, when he suggested a scenario where the two overcome their party differences and form…
Is South Africa going to a situation where the country will be led by Paul Mashatile and Julius Malema.
Mashatile is the current vice-president of the African National Congress (ANC) and will replace David Mabuza as the country’s second-in-command when President Cyril Ramaphosa’s long-awaited cabinet reshuffle finally takes place.
Malema, on the other hand, has been the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) for almost 10 years.
Political analyst Prince Mashele sparked a debate among South Africans this week, when he proposed a scenario where the two could overcome their party differences and form an alliance to rule the country.
In an interview with the SABC, Mashele said South Africans should brace themselves for a moment when Malema will become the country’s vice president with the possibility that the next vice president will replace Ramaphosa as president.
“There is a personal matter between Julius and Ramaphosa and they (EFF) have a good relationship with Paul Mashatile and the ANC leadership in Gauteng.
“He has a deal with the Gauteng ANC leadership by bringing back the ANC to the metros, and the deal includes that if the ANC gets less than 50% next year and the EFF gets 10%, Paul Mashatile as president and Julius Malema as Vice president, will rule South Africa, ” said Mashele.
See Mashele’s insert below:
Not a completely believable scenario
At least three political analysts spoke The Warga I believe this scenario cannot be rejected.
In response to this, political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage said that Ramaphosa could not show much success this time in terms of the main criteria of governance, especially the fight against corruption, saying that there are questions about the ability of the president to create an environment in which competitors emerge. .
READ ALSO: Is there a decision that Ramaphosa wants to make without delay?
Duvenhage said there were also rumors that Mashatile could reposition Ramaphosa during the ANC’s national elective conference last year and align with Dr. Zweli Mkhize.
“I believe he (Mashatile) read the situation and saw that it would be better to go to Ramaphosa and try to get the position of vice president of the country.
“Now all these arguments depend on what happened to Ramaphosa. I think he did well during the elective conference, made his position a little better but there is still all Phala Phala, and just this week the Constitutional Court denied the right to appeal. prima facie the case presented by the Commission of Inquiry before the Parliament,” said Duvenhage.
READ ALSO: EFF, DA welcome ConCourt decision on Ramaphosa’s bid to challenge Phala Phala report
The road to 2024 for the ANC
Duvenhage wonders if the same rules apply to Ace Magashule and many others, saying there is a lot of uncertainty around Ramaphosa.
Duvenhage said the question of whether the ANC would need the support of the EFF to come out on top in next year’s much-anticipated general election could not be avoided.
“We have already heard the ANC chairman in Gauteng Panyaza Lesufi making inroads in terms of forming an alliance with the EFF, and we have also seen the impact of this in terms of metros in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and also now Tshwane.
He stressed that it was implausible that Mashatile could eventually become the leader of the ANC, and that parts of the ANC could align with the EFF.
Is Mashatile a political opportunist?
According to Duvenhage, Mashatile may support Ramaphosa as far as it is in his interest and in terms of the balance of power in the ANC.
“I have no doubt that the balance of power in the ANC will favor Mashatile, he will benefit. And I think he has the position of president, and I still think that Ramaphosa is vulnerable and not a strong leader.
“The other side of Ramaphosa is that he is cautious and as a result, he is still alive. I think at the moment the balance of forces is still in favor, but I am not sure what the impact of Phala Phala, including how the episode of Andre de Ruyter will play out in the structure of the ANC, and that will be affected,” Duvenhage said.
READ ALSO: ‘We will see each other in court’: ANC slams De Ruyter’s ‘right wing’ for shifting blame to Eskom
Another analyst, Sanusha Naidu, shared similar sentiments.
He said while there were several permutations, there were also murmurs in the ANC about people not being happy about having Mashatile as vice president.
Mashatile and Malema’s partnership depends on the situation
Commenting further on the possibility of a Mashatile and Malema presidency, Naidu said it was also important to question what dynamics would allow such a permutation.
“One of the questions we have to ask is whether Ramaphosa intends to. Does he want to stay after 2024? And let’s say he decides to stay, what does that mean permutation?
“Depending on what margin the ANC wins in next year’s general election, if a coalition agreement is needed, does this give Mashatile a boost? Can it make him more, and who is the main negotiator for coalition talks?” asked Naidu.
Naidu further observed: “Looking at what is happening in some of the metros – Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni – one wonders if this has given the EFF leverage to say they will work with the ANC but without Ramaphosa.
“On the other hand, if Ramaphosa decides to go, does Mashatile have the ability and will the ANC join forces to elect Malema as vice president.”
Ramaphosa is more vulnerable now
“The Constitutional Court rejected the application this week and the challenge for Ramaphosa is that something is done by the ANC’s integrity commission, not forgetting institutions such as the Hawks and the South African Revenue Service (Sars), etc. Everything is just piling up.
“Is Cyril still more popular than the party or is he now a liability for the ANC?” asked Naidu.
Also Read: ConCourt ruling on Phala Phala report ‘no blow’ for Ramaphosa – The Presidency