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Ballymore Novices Hurdle (4000m):
Only 10 went to the post and only four from the front. That said, it wasn’t quite the penalty kick for the Irishman that it might first appear. HERMES ALLEN won Challow at Newbury, a new middle distance hurdles credential at Christmas and clear second favorite in the 3s.
The favorite is IMPAIRE ET PASSE, but he has not been seen since Moscow Flyer’s win at Punchestown on heavy ground in mid-January. I was not taken with jumping today and I think it will put a lot more pressure in this race.
The second string to appear from the Mullins team is GAELIC WARRIOR and he has proven himself at Cheltenham, where he was second in the Juvenile handicap last year and at Leopardstown where he won the big handicap at the Dublin Festival of Racing. His jumping is also a concern as he tends to jump to the right which will be a problem on this left track.
I am staying on the Irish Sea side with HERMES ALLEN.
Chocolate Advisory Novices Chase (4850m):
11 to post for the competition to hunt for new people to stay. Seven Irish take four English and again the front side has real claims.
But the favorite is GERRI COLOMBE who has won his last two hunts at Grade 1 level in the form of Faugheen at Limerick and Isles of Scilly at Sandown. It’s left hand and over 850m more – now, maybe the horse will enjoy the extra trip and there’s no doubt he won’t but 13/8 is pretty skinny in view.
SIR GERHARD won Ballymore last year and came this from one Chase run over 3200m. He won beating two other opponents at 1/6. It tells us nothing – he enjoyed the rain-softened Cheltenham ground last year, but this is a different test.
After winning the Dipper on New Year’s Day, there was talk of a Gold Cup for THE REAL WHACKER, but that was a real target, and he had the form and range to match.
THYME HILL was runner up in last year’s Stayers Hurdle and came into the chase quite late. His efforts at Exeter and Ascot were disappointing but he was better at Kempton on Boxing Day on Kauto Star and he has a significant chance. I just wonder how the fencer will stand in this top company.
My winning idea is the mare GALIA DES LITEAUX who won well at Warwick after running at Kempton on Boxing Day. He never looked happy, and I just wonder if the left hand back will help – he is good every way inside for me in 8s or more.
Queen Mother Chase (3200m):
One of four Blue Riband races this week. Only seven runners but quality updates. Last year’s ENERGUMENE winner was considered a near certainty (especially with the likes of SHISHKIN and CHACUN POUR SOI falling by the wayside) but that’s not the case this season.
EDWARDSTONE, last year’s Arkle winner, rose to prominence with a big win at Tingle Creek at Sandown but broke the copybook at Kempton over Christmas with an uncharacteristic mistake that sent Tom Cannon out of the saddle. The beneficiary was EDITEUR DU GITE that day.
Clarence House was moved from Ascot to Cheltenham after the December snow and with EDWARDSTONE and ENERGUMENE back in the field, EDITEUR DU GITE was not expected to win again but he did. ENERGUMENE was let down by a jump including a late mistake, while EDWARDSTONE may have had a lot to do, but led half way up only to be dropped by EDITEUR DU GITE who rallied in the final stride.
The bets suggest EDWARDSTONE and ENERGUMENE will have the advantage, but it is a bit insulting to EDITEUR DU GITE and the 5s on offer may reflect the fact that he is not from the top stable.
I can win again but the call percentage is probably EDWARDSTONE.
NUBE NEGRA and GREANETEEN have limits at this level and one for the outsiders (although only seven runners, not an each-way race) is FUNAMBULE SIVOLA who chased ENERGUMENE home last year and looked his best at the Games. Roh – 33s is an insulting price and there are eight I will be in but with seven I am less confident.
Bumper Champion (3200m):
The National Hunt Flat race tops the calendar and the maximum field is 24 runners.
Only five English horses took 19 Irish and on this occasion it was difficult to give any home team.
A DREAM TO SHARE won the Bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival beating FACT TO FILE but I was particularly taken by winning IT’S FOR ME at Navan in January. He won by 10 lengths without, as they say, getting out of second gear.
Day Two Options:
1.30: HERMES ALLEN
2.10: GALIA DES LITEAUS
3.30: EDITOR’S GITE
5.30: That’s it for me
Stodge
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