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Stopping the majority of LAB would be a victory
So far, opinion polls in 2023 are no different from last year and all still point to a significant LAB victory in the next general election anytime soon.
From Sunak’s point of view, another result from the majority of LAB can be seen as a victory and I think that this can be done. The seat calculator suggests that for LAB to have an overall majority, it will require a GB vote lead well ahead of 10% and that is a big ask. But Starmer will be PM. although LAB did not get a majority because a deal would be struck with another party that would end the Tory government.
Indeed I could see Starmer becoming Prime Minister even if the Tories won more votes and more seats than LAB. The important thing is that the Tories have to lose their majority and in that situation, Starmer is clearly the obvious choice for PM Considering the situation in Ireland this means that the Tories lose 47 or so seats.
This will all take a long time and the Sunak government can stay until early 2025 if they want to do it.
Mike Smithson
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