California mass shootings: Older suspects defy typical profile

The gunmen in two recent shootings in Monterey Park and Half Moon Bay, California, had an unusual profile compared to most perpetrators of violent crimes: They were both senior citizens.

The Monterey Park gunman, who killed 11 and wounded nine before fatally shooting himself, was 72. The Half Moon Bay gunman, who killed seven people before being arrested in what the police have characterized as an act of violence in the workplace, 66.

Snipers of that age are rare, especially those with no prior criminal record, as was the case with the Half Moon Bay gunman. (The Monterey Park gunman had one arrest in 1990 for illegal firearm possession.) According to data from the National Institute of Justice, mass shooters between 1966 and 2021 were on average 34 years old, and those over 60 years old. a little over 3 percent of all mass shootings, which are defined as shootings in which four or more people are killed.

The notion that people “age out of crime” is one of the most well-documented phenomena in the field of criminology. The California shooting should be seen as an exception to that principle, not an example that invalidates it, according to Ashley Nellis, research director for the Sentencing Project, which advocates for criminal justice reform.

“The predictability of age is probably the most reliable data point about people committing violent crimes. Young people are just more likely, and by extension, older people are less likely to commit crimes,” Nellis said. “It’s definitely a note of caution for anyone who’s going to jump into making policy based on these two events.”

Research has repeatedly shown that criminal activity increases during the teenage years, reaches its highest point at age 17, the oldest age at which a person can be charged with a juvenile crime, and then declines throughout life. Property crime increases at a slightly younger age than violent crime. But even extreme offenders will statistically likely to stop committing crimes around the age of 40, Nellis said.

There are many theories as to why this works. Typical milestones associated with aging, such as graduation or marriage, can set people on a trajectory away from criminality. Brain development is not complete until the mid-20s, hindering decision-making that can lead to crime and risky behavior. Young people have less financial security, and poor people are more likely to commit crimes. Some crimes may be physically demanding, and parents may not have the strength to do so.

But the gunmen in the California shootings defy the violent criminal archetype, and their motives remain unclear. Investigators​​​​ said the Monterey Park shooter frequented the dance studio where he killed his victims and that the Half Moon Bay gunman, who lived and worked as a forklift driver at a mushroom farm, was angry at the friends he shot. Before that, there was a 70-year-old mass shooter, including the gunman who opened fire at a church in Vestavia Hills, Alabama, killing three people last June.

Although age can sometimes be a factor in the decision to impose a less harsh sentence on young offenders, the age of half of the Half Moon Bay shooter will not have a bearing on the length of his sentence, as is standard practice in the US.

He will be charged with seven counts of murder and one count of attempted murder, with special circumstances of the allegation of multiple murders and sentence enhancement for each count because of the use of firearms, the San Mateo County district attorney announced Wednesday. If convicted of the charges, he could face up to life in prison without the possibility of parole. (He will not face the death penalty, as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, placed a moratorium on executions in the state in 2019.)

Life sentences without parole have become common in the US over the past few decades. But Nellis said the age of older offenders like the Half Moon Bay shooter should be considered a mitigating factor when making sentencing decisions — especially since the use of executive clemency to release them early is no longer in place, he wrote in a 2022 report.

“Regardless of age, people who commit violent acts like this will be rehabilitated, reformed, ready to return to society within 10 years,” he said.

Recidivism is disproportionately high among the elderly, according to data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission, and remaining in prison comes at a high cost to taxpayers, including ballooning health care bills later in life. It is difficult to say how many will decide the fate of the suspect Half Moon Bay will take the data into account; The preliminary arraignment is Wednesday.