Building brigades: Canada, NATO allies struggle to shore up Baltic defences against Russian threat

The idea sounds good on paper.

But turning NATO’s so-called “tripwire” forces in the three Baltic states into top-level combat brigades — the kind that could withstand a Russian invasion — is proving to be a challenge for the leading nations involved: Canada, Britain and Germany.

At the last NATO summit in Madrid, the leaders of the western military alliance ordered the conversion of battle groups in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia into full combat brigades of 4,000 to 6,000 troops each, depending on the availability of equipment.

Getting there is proving to be a struggle, according to two new reports – one from Britain’s House of Commons, the other from a Warsaw-based international affairs think-tank.

Since the June NATO summit, journalists have been asking Canadian politicians and military officials when a Canadian-led brigade in Latvia will be created and what it will look like. His response was ambiguous.

In a recent interview with CBC News, Chief of the Defense Staff General Wayne Eyre wouldn’t be pinned down to an exact timeline but said “the first exercise we see is in 2024 … at the brigade level.”

That means completing the expansion to the brigade level could take Canada two years from start to finish.

And it seems that Canada is not the only country struggling with the creation of a combat brigade – despite the demands of Baltic leaders and western politicians who are very serious about the project.

A research briefing for the British House of Commons noted that Britain, which leads the NATO mission in Estonia, has two battle groups deployed in the country – one under the alliance flag, the other deployed bilaterally by former prime minister Boris Johnson at the time. after Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine.

“However, in October, the Ministry of Defense (MOD) announced that additional battle groups would not be replaced in 2023,” said the research paper, dated November 21, 2022.

“The UK will continue to lead NATO battlegroups. Instead of additional battlegroups, the UK will prepare a ‘Brigade balance’ in the UK, available to deploy if necessary.”

Britain also promised to “surge” troops throughout the year to conduct training, increase headquarters and provide support to the Estonian armed forces.

The problem – according to the Center for Eastern Studies, a Warsaw-based analytics organization – is that Britain, like Canada, does not have enough troops to deploy without resorting to drastic measures like mobilization.

“Currently – and for the foreseeable future – the British Army cannot maintain a continuous rotational presence of all armored brigades outside the UK without declaring mobilization,” said the Eastern Studies Center’s report entitled Expectations vs. Reality: NATO Brigades in the Baltic States.

“Britain’s 3rd division, intended for operations in the European theater, will only complete the process of restructuring and modernization in 2030 … That is why London cannot assign a special brigade to Estonia, but can only give individual subunits,” the report said. .

How many troops does Canada need?

The report went on to say that “Canada also had the problem of deploying an entire brigade without prior mobilization, as the peacetime armed forces consisted of only three mechanized brigades.”

Canada’s federal government is currently reviewing the country’s defense policy. One of the things discussed as part of the process is the appropriate size of Canada’s military, given the changing global security climate in recent years.

Germany, which leads the NATO battle group in Lithuania, faces its own challenge – that is, the commitment of troops to the alliance’s crisis forces.

“The German army will not have a full-fledged brigade until 2023, when it will be tasked with NATO’s High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),” the Center for Eastern Analysis said.

“The Bundeswehr will only have one modern division available in 2027, and two more in 2031. Thus, it will only be able to deploy one brigade in Lithuania in rotation around 2026.”

All current warring groups in the region are multinational formations. Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said other countries supporting the Canadian-led operation in Latvia are being consulted about what they can do.

Canada’s military operational commander, Vice-Admiral Bob Auchterlonie, said Canada was trying to boost forces in Latvia alongside its allies.

“We’re working with England and Germany on the schedule, and we’re working with Latvia on some of the things we need to get in,” Auchterlonie said in a recent interview with CBC News.

In recent months, Lithuania and Estonia in particular have complained about the plan adopted at the Madrid NATO summit. He said he didn’t want the supporting countries (Germany and the UK) to rush into the country in case of an emergency. They want real brigades to be put on the ground, not on paper.

Auchterloine said that Canada is also trying to decide how many troops should be deployed in Latvia on a rotational basis – and how much can be rushed through what can be contesting waters and airspace in the event of a conflict with Russia.

And there is another problem, according to a report by the Center for Eastern Studies.

“Despite diplomatic efforts, none of the Baltic states can provide the necessary infrastructure to deploy such troops in the future,” the report said. “Training land and barracks infrastructure are insufficient and need to be significantly developed.”

Allies have time to prepare: Auchterlonie

Lithuania says it will make all relevant investments by 2026. Estonia just finished negotiations in London last fall to do this.

Auchterlonie said Canada faces a similar space crunch in Latvia. Camp Adazi outside Riga, where the battle group, “stops in layers,” adding more tanks and troops is impossible now and the brigade is “simply not suitable,” he said.

Allies, he added, had little time.

“The Russians are fully committed to Ukraine. In terms of direct threats, is there a direct threat from Russia in this direction? I would say that, you know, our allies in the Baltics agree that the threat is somewhat reduced now,” said Auchterlonie.

If a crisis in the region escalates, he said, allies will want to make sure there are troops available.

“But that’s not going to happen today,” he said. “It’s not going to happen tomorrow.”