Brief Rocket Fire Disrupts Gaza Cease-Fire. How Long Can the Truce Last?

A truce between Israel and Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip was largely maintained on Sunday, except for an exchange of fire in the evening, and routine returned hours after both sides agreed to end the five-day escalation that has been at least deadly. 33 people in Gaza and two in Israel.

But across the region, the question is when, rather than if, a ceasefire will break. The escalation, at least the 11th involving Gaza since 2006, comes just nine months after a battle days earlier between Israel and militias in the coastal region.

The Israeli military said a single Palestinian rocket was fired into an open area near Gaza on Sunday evening, causing no damage but reminding residents of the fragility of the ceasefire.

Regional dynamics also remain unstable: Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza, imposed jointly with Egypt, remains in place, as does its 56-year occupation of the West Bank, both of which have fueled Palestinian anger and violence. Hardline Palestinian militias that officially call Israel’s destruction still dominate Gaza and maintain a strong presence in the West Bank – reinforcing Israel’s rationale for controlling the region.

What is the ceasefire situation on Sunday?

Israel allowed goods, food and people to re-enter Gaza on Sunday morning and allowed thousands of Gazans to return to Israel to work on construction sites and farms, after authorities blocked entry and exit during last week’s escalation.

But a wider blockade remains in place: Since Hamas seized Gaza in 2007, Israel has blocked certain imports into the enclave, particularly electronic and computing equipment, out of fear that militants could reuse it as weapons. Israel has also restricted most travel out of Gaza.

In southern Israel, life returned to normal on Sunday, with schools and roads reopened and bomb shelters emptied after the threat of widespread Palestinian rocket fire. But the rocket fire on Sunday afternoon sent some residents fleeing again.

In response, Israel said it briefly shelled two militant outposts. No injuries were reported and Palestinian militant leaders said the rocket was fired by mistake.

Palestine once again started the usual rebuilding operation in Gaza: Officials said that the Israeli air strikes last week have destroyed or irreparably damaged 100 houses and apartments, and caused less severe damage to more than 900 others.

Why was the truce possible?

For now, Palestinian Islamic Jihad – the Iranian-backed militia leading the war with Israel – appears to be failing. Israeli airstrikes killed several of the group’s top commanders, as well as several civilians, and the Israeli military said it had destroyed several rocket launchers and an arsenal of rockets.

Hamas, the larger and better-armed militia that governs the Gaza Strip, is not generally involved in the fighting. Although Hamas has helped fuel recent violence in the West Bank and Lebanon, its leaders have recently indicated that they do not want to join their stronghold in Gaza in the campaign.

Hamas officially seeks the destruction of Israel and, like Islamic Jihad, is considered a terrorist organization by countries including Israel, Japan and the United States. But it also opens Gaza and is necessary to alleviate the economy paralyzed in large part by years of Israeli restrictions on the area.

Aware of this balancing act, Israel has issued approximately 20,000 work permits to Gazan workers over the past two years – providing a vital source of money and labor to a region where nearly half of eligible workers are unemployed. Experts argue that Hamas does not want to jeopardize the arrangement, at least not for now.

Why did the truce collapse?

Islamic Jihad has not dealt anything close to a fatal blow. Israeli officials estimate that the group still has around 10,000 operatives and several thousand rockets. And while several of the group’s leaders were killed last week, it lost the same commander during the previous escalation last August – and then took less than a year to recover.

Because Islamic Jihad does not govern Gaza, its leaders do not have to worry about maintaining the enclave’s economy. This leaves the group freer to fire rockets in response to activity by Israeli security forces in the West Bank and Israel. Israel’s arrest of a senior Islamic Jihad leader in the West Bank was one of the catalysts for the war last August, and the escalation last week was partly prompted by the death of a second Islamic Jihad leader on hunger strike in an Israeli prison.

Hamas, like Islamic Jihad, is considered a terrorist group by countries including Israel and the United States. Hamas fighters could also start firing rockets again if the group feels that Israel’s actions cross a red line it considers excessive.

The group has threatened to respond to deadly Israeli military operations in Palestinian towns in the West Bank; the march of Israelis left and right through the Arab areas of Jerusalem; and Israeli police raided the Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem, a site also holy to Jews, who call it the Temple Mount.

Recently, Hamas gunmen killed several Israeli civilians in the West Bank and allegedly fired rockets into Israel from Lebanon. If the attacks escalate, Israeli leaders will face pressure from hardliners in their government to attack Hamas’ nerve centers in Gaza, increasing the risk of rocket attacks.

What can break the cycle?

Without a comprehensive resolution to the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict, analysts do not foresee an end to the recurring violence in Gaza.

Although small economic concessions from Israel helped delay new episodes of violence and reduce their intensity, they did not remove the main causes of Palestinian anger: Israel’s wider economic restrictions on Gaza, the two-tier legal system in the West Bank – and, for the Palestinian extremists who control Gaza, Israel very existence in the first place.

Moderates on both sides still hope to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel, but currently lack the ability to restart meaningful peace talks. Israel’s far-right leaders reject the idea of ​​Palestinian independence, and the country’s small peace camp has no chance of gaining power. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank in coordination with Israel, was forced out of Gaza in 2007 by Hamas, which does not recognize Israel.

A cartoon published Sunday in Israel’s leading newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, summed up the mood.

“We have to wrap up this operation in Gaza,” Israel’s army chief, Herzi Halevi, is pictured telling a cartoon version of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Because soon we get the next operation in Gaza.”

Gabby Sobelman contributed reports from Rehovot, Israel, and Myra Noveck and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem.