Brazil’s Bolsonaro is in Florida. What does the U.S. do now?

Brazil’s far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro flew to Florida two days before his term ends, as he challenges the results of the Oct. 30 runoff election in which he narrowly lost to leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

On Sunday, a violent movement of Bolsonaro supporters who rejected the election stormed the presidential palace, Congress and Brazil’s Supreme Court.

Bolsonaro arrived in Florida on December 30, so there will be no inauguration of his successor in Brazil. The Washington Post has reported he has been living in a home in Orlando owned by Brazilian mixed martial arts fighter José Aldo da Silva Oliveira, and has not appeared to engage in overt political activity or appear at any policy forums since his arrival.

Bolsonaro is related to former US president Donald Trump, and his son Eduardo Bolsonaro belongs to an anti-globalization group formed by Steve Bannon, a former Trump adviser who faces legal threats in two separate cases.

Some Democrats believe Bolsonaro should be removed from the country, including progressive New York Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who tweeted on Sunday, “The US should stop giving Bolsonaro protection in Florida.”

At the other end of the spectrum, far-right House Republican Paul Gosar of Arizona said he would be happy to grant asylum to Bolsonaro.

The White House said on Monday that it had not received a request from the Brazilian government about Bolsonaro’s status.

By letting him stay, the US could invite criticism that it is detaining a man his successor accuses of fueling anti-democratic violence. But forcing a former president of an ally to enter the country in good faith with a top-tier visa raises awkward questions about due process.

Bolsonaro, 67, has a rocky relationship with President Joe Biden, and has been in a weaker home in Brazil after losing protection from prosecution when he stepped down as president. The investigation could lead to his arrest or bar him from office, Reuters reported last week.

Here’s how the situation could theoretically work:

If the US starts to delete

Three US sources told Reuters that Bolsonaro was almost certain to sign an A-1 visa, which is reserved for heads of state, diplomats and other government officials.

Usually the A-1 is canceled after the recipient leaves the office. But since Bolsonaro had left Brazil before his term ended, he suspected that A-1 was still active.

One official, who has experience with visa cancellations for former heads of state, said there is no time limit on how long a person can stay in the United States on an A-1.

“We are in uncharted territory,” the official said.

In response to Reuters questions, State Department spokesman Ned Price said anyone in the United States on an A-1 visa who is not engaged in official business must leave the country within 30 days, or apply to change their immigration status. Price said he could not comment on individual visa status, but spoke in general terms about visa rules.

“If an individual has no basis for living in the United States, the person can be removed by the Department of Homeland Security,” Price said.

These views were expressed by John Feeley, the US ambassador to Panama from late 2015 to 2018 when the Central American country sought the extradition of former president Ricardo Martinelli.

“The United States — or any sovereign country — can deport a foreigner, even someone who entered legally with a visa, for any reason,” Feeley said. “It was a truly selfless decision that was not needed.”

If Brazil moves to take Bolsonaro

Lula, as he is known, blamed Bolsonaro for Sunday’s violence. In a tweet on Sunday, Bolsonaro dismissed Sunday’s riots, saying they had crossed the line into peaceful protests.

The attack could lead to an investigation by Brazil’s Supreme Court, led by cross-judge Alexandre de Moraes.

WATCH | Several weapons were found, a probe was launched after hundreds were seized in Brazil:

If Moraes were to sign an arrest warrant while Bolsonaro was in the United States, the former president would technically be required to return to Brazil and surrender himself to the police. If they refuse, Brazil can issue an Interpol Red Notice to request an arrest by US federal agents.

If Bolsonaro is arrested, Brazil will have to seek extradition, which could take years.

Bet for Bolsonaro

Lula had promised in his January 1 inauguration speech that Bolsonaro would be prosecuted if necessary in relation to previous cases. The four previous criminal investigations include accusations that Bolsonaro relied on the federal police to protect his son, spread known electoral fraud and concealed troll farm disinformation from the president’s office.

When the judiciary was independent, prosecution of former presidents was unheard of in Brazil.

Lula himself was jailed for corruption stemming from the Lava Jato (Car Wash) probe, which also saw former president Michel Temer arrested at one point. Lula remains convinced that it is politically motivated.

Also, former president Fernando Collor de Mello faced a corruption trial in the 1990s, and was eventually acquitted.

Bolsonaro’s question for the US may not be relevant, given his ongoing health problems. He was hospitalized in Florida on Monday for stomach pains related to a 2018 stabbing he suffered while on the campaign trail, his wife said on social media.

Bolsonaro told CNN Brazil that he wanted to cut short his time in the US due to medical problems, according to a report published on the outlet’s website, adding that the trip was originally planned for the end of the month.