It is now October 2023 and the Conservatives are entering the Manchester conference center for their leadership speech. In the middle of the triumphal music, the prime minister approached the podium, admired his long hair, gave a sly smile and began: “Friends, as I said before I was rudely interrupted”.
Despite all this, there are Tory MPs who are dreaming about the return of Boris Johnson. This shameless figure, who knows how to win but can’t manage, remains an itch that many in his party can’t stop.
And since knowing how to win suddenly seems a little more urgent, a significant minority of Tory MPs still consider a return desirable. The thing is, he is too. The former leader is now adding to his bank balance with a well-paid speaking gig, following this activity with the prime minister’s Christmas message and sparking a strange rebellion against his successor, Rishi Sunak.
Of course, Johnson’s reinstatement would signal the Conservative Party’s final capitulation to intellectual and political frivolity and the possibility of remaining strong. But the possibility is a destabilizing factor for Sunak and his government as they struggle with various political and economic crises.
The reasons for not reinstating Johnson need not be repeated, but the path it could take is clear. Up to a quarter of Tory MPs regret Sunak’s success and Johnson’s departure. Caught in intrigue and in a state of permanent disaffection, many have convinced themselves that high taxes imposed to restore public finances show the current prime minister is not true Conservative.
For a while, this won’t be a problem. The Tories know that the public want an end to the chaos of last year. Even most of the 100-plus MPs are myopic because they already consider Johnson or Penny Mordaunt as the leading choice for prime minister, looking at some alternative to stay with Sunak for now in the hope that a period of quiet competence will persuade the voters not to love him. Alternative workforce.
Sunak’s position depends not only on the recognition that the party cannot continue to change leaders, but also on the demonstration that he can prevent, or at least minimize, defeat. Privately, most Tories still expect to lose the next election, but they have little hope that many unhappy supporters are in the undecided column, so they could win again.
The leader’s template was John Major’s victory in 1992, which saw the Tories overturn a polling deficit to win at the last minute. But the gap is now bigger than the Major. The outlook for the economy and public services looks bleak. The local elections in May did not go well. There is reason to believe that Labor will hold onto the opinion polls until 2023. Closing the gap will be a difficult process even in the most benign of circumstances. Sunak relies on lawmakers holding their nerve down to the wire.
But patience is no longer a Tory virtue. With no improvement seen over the summer, it may be enough Tory MPs are ready for another “hey presto” solution. And Johnson has shown by his awkward run back to England after the collapse of the Truss premiership that the call needn’t be so dire for him to heed.
Despite being a big government Conservative, Johnson will ally with the party by demanding a return to tax cuts, a smaller country and more Brexit (whatever that means). After Sunak gained unpopularity to stabilize public finances, Johnson would promise an agenda of tax cuts.
And he has one advantage. Even the most deluded MP can see that four leaders in two years may seem dysfunctional. Bringing back the original elected prime minister can be easier to defend. And what could be more true to Johnson’s sense of destiny than his return party – surely the greatest restoration since the return of the Stuarts?
Is this a possibility? Not. But is it possible? Enough, and enough to destroy Sunak’s leadership. There are many obstacles, not least the ongoing Commons investigation into the conduct of Johnson’s own party and, more importantly, public questions about his handling of the pandemic. But he continued to harass his party and his notorious allies still harassed him back.
This problem for the Tories is almost comparable to the taint of the hard-left for Labour. Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts to detoxify the party, although Corbynism is still a fresh memory for some. Likewise, chaos, dishonesty and self-satisfaction in recent years cast a shadow over Sunak’s efforts to restore his party’s reputation.
That Johnson’s restoration is anything but inconceivable is a sign of malaise. This is a party that will no longer be serious until it can show that it has banished the ghosts of Johnsonism, cakeism and cranky economic theory.
Crucial to Sunak’s appeal is that, for all his faults, he is a recognizable Tory leader. When you ask the members of the cabinet what can secure victory for them, the answer is the first hint of economic recovery but also “competence” and “good governance”.
So, Sunak’s mission is not only to restore good governance in the country; it is to rebuild appreciation in the Tories. The more Johnson’s dream come back to life, the more certain it is that the party needs a spell in the opposition.
robert.shrimsley@ft.com