Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) can reach $10 million after the sixth halving in 2032, as long as the Bitcoin layer-2 technology and wallet infrastructure improves.
In a Twitter thread February 12, Back, one of the contributors to the core of Bitcoin, was state to his 509,000 followers under what conditions Hal Finney’s $10 million price prediction for BTC can come true.
He noted that BTC has doubled in price every year on average since 2013 and explained that if the trend continues, the price of BTC will reach $10M along with a market cap of $200 trillion in nine years time.
earlier this year I was intrigued by the “bitcoin 2x per year on average” claim. it examines: decade jan 2013 – december 2022 #bitcoin up 2,036x/year (1200x in a decade). if it continues, we will cross $10mil/BTC and $200 tril market cap at the end of the next 2 halvings, about 9 years. pic.twitter.com/mqmO2SRdAv
– Adam Back (@adam3us) February 12, 2023
However, Back said that in order for these numbers to be achieved, improvements in Bitcoin’s layer-2 technology and wallet infrastructure must be fast-tracked to allow time for the innovation to scale:
“I think it will be “interesting” during the next two rounds. and quickly, we don’t have much time to scale the tech. we need somewhere for the next billion users to have their own UTXO, their own keys, with censorship-resistant cold storage. without compromising security main chain.
Back said that “probably means sidechains / drivechains as a tradeoff. more lightning optimization […] we don’t have much time because technology needs time to mature, wallet, interop, integration.
Responding to a comments, Back said he believes Bitcoin adoption has not reached the bottom of the S-curve yet, because only 1-2% of the world’s population has tapped into Bitcoin. He predicts more investors will start “stacking” BTC into cold storage wallets:
“Given the volatility, I think #bitcoin can overshoot wildly and tap one of the $100-300 trillion market cap, right and then again stable adoption over time. I suspect people with an average entry point, relative to the current price will not have an incentive to sell by size.
The CEO explained that part of the next wave of adoption could come from what he described as “hyperbitcoinization spurts” – where people in a hyperinflationary environment would “rush” to bitcoin:
related: Blockstream CEO Adam Back talks Bitcoin through a game of Jenga
However, responding to other comments, Back also admitted that “we have failed to solve bitcoin” so far. Cypherpunk suggests that Bitcoin can be used in mortgages where property is used as collateral and Bitcoin is the interest:
“The market in the original financialisation of bitcoin is not mature, it is almost untouched. bitcoin structured products, mortgages backed by real-estate but the interest is guaranteed by BTC, other products make bitcoin easier to use for more people, and match the risk profile. more growth.”
Back added that to get closer to $10 million, BTC would also have to “shift” a significant proportion of its value premium savings in bonds, real estate, gold and stock portfolios.
You think bitcoin twitter is bullish? Hal Finney (@half), calculated the bitcoin price to be $10,000,000 per coin just WEEKS after the January 3, 2009 genesis block.
An absolute legend. pic.twitter.com/5MptLhEYHL
– Doc (@DrBitcoinMD) August 23, 2019
BTC is currently priced at $21,800.