Bitcoin and crypto markets are once again facing an important week. After Bitcoin reached its annual high of $24,248 on February 02, the price is currently in consolidation.
Mainly the news about Kraken, the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the alleged ban on crypto-staking by centralized US exchanges caused a pullback in the crypto market last week. But diverging statements from various members of the US Federal Reserve Fed also dragged down prices in the crypto market.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also adjusted the inflation rate to the lowest it published in the new month, raising fears of “sticky” inflation and raising the possibility of interest rates for a longer period.
Macro Data For Bitcoin And Crypto This Week
This trading week, the most important event will come on Tuesday. At 8:30 am EST, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release US inflation data for the month of January. In December, the CPI was 6.5%, down from 7.1% in November.
For January, experts now expect a decline of up to 6.2%. If the expectations of the analysts are confirmed or even better, the rally in the stock market as well as in the crypto market, which has been going on since the beginning of the year, can continue. SEC notices and Operation Choke Point can be pushed to the background.
However, if the CPI comes in above estimates, the US Dollar Index (DXY) will continue to gain strength, dragging risk assets like crypto and Bitcoin through inverse correlation. And this risk cannot be underestimated.
Last Friday, February 10, the number of the last three months was revised upwards due to seasonal adjustments. This could be a warning sign that US inflation rates may be more “sticky” than previously thought and priced in by investors.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at an interesting point. After the DXY managed to hold the multi-year support at 101, the index is now at 103.7, just below the resistance at 103.9.
A daily close above this level could spell further doom for the crypto market. With the daily RSI still only at 56, the DXY could have more room to move higher. A look at the DXY therefore remains of high importance this week.
Another Date This Week
On Wednesday, February 15, US retail sales for the month of January will be announced at 8:30 am EST. It is considered an important measure to gauge household spending sentiment.
In November and December 2022, US retail sales were in negative territory. In the December Christmas month, the figure of -1.1% was even lower than the analyst estimate of -0.8%. However, for the month of January, experts expect a recovery of 1.6%.
If the buying mood among US citizens actually improves, this could mean another bullish impulse for the stock market as well as the Bitcoin market after the CPI release the previous day.
On Thursday, February 16, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January will be released at 8:30 am EST. Market experts expect a 0.4% month-on-month increase. In December, producer prices fell by -0.5%, a more significant decline than analysts had expected.
If the PPI rises as expected by experts, the US dollar will gain further strength and provide headwinds for the stock and crypto markets.
If, on the other hand, the PPI is below the estimates of market experts, this will reduce the pressure on Bitcoin and may lead to a bullish price reaction in the crypto market.
At press time, Bitcoin price stood at $21,752, finding support at the 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart.
Option images from iStock, Charts from TradingView.com