Biden’s age, popularity could hurt re-election bid in 2024, but Trump expected to play outsize role

When Joe Biden’s campaign team released a video on Tuesday morning announcing his official intention to run for re-election next year, it means the US president – already the oldest person to hold the job – will be 86 at the end of his second year. term.

While questions about Biden’s age are certainly a factor in his re-election bid, so are troubling poll numbers that show the 80-year-old Democratic president continues to struggle with disapproval ratings that outnumber those who approve of his job performance.

While these two factors can be the main obstacles of the campaign, some observers point out that in the end, the most important issue will be the same as in 2020: the vote for or against Donald Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but was defeated by Biden four times. years later.

“If Trump is the Republican nominee, I think there’s a good chance that the 2024 election will also be a referendum on Trump,” said Danny Hayes, a political science professor at George Washington University, in Washington, DC.

Biden’s video has shown that the 2024 fight will be about Trump and defending democracy against “MAGA extremists…

“That’s a theme we’re going to have regardless of who the Republican candidate is,” Hayes said. “That argument might be easier to make if it were Trump.”

Trump, 76, who announced his bid for re-election in November, still remains the favorite among Republican voters to represent the party in the 2024 contest. Although it is still early in the race, Trump’s main competitor is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who – despite in the polls and recently lost a major Republican endorsement — will be a tough challenger if he decides to run for the nomination.

Some polls show that DeSantis would do better than Trump against Biden. Additionally, DeSantis, at 44, will provide a strong contrast to Biden, who — at least in terms of age — would benefit from a rematch against Trump, just four years younger.

Questions about health

During his presidency, Biden faced questions about his health and at times appeared frail, confused or accused of sleeping. It’s an issue that voters, including Democratic supporters, are talking about.

A recent New York Times editorial titled Biden Should Heed Voters’ Concerns About Age said that “questions will continue to be raised about his age until he does more to assure voters that he can do the job.”

“Concerns about age — in terms of fitness for office and not in relation to the present — are valid,” the editorial said.

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The Wall Street Journal pointed further in an editorial, saying that “the public knows what Mr. Biden will not admit: that electing an octogenarian with a clear decline in another four years could be a historic mistake.”

“Asking the country to elect someone who is 80 years old and whose second term ends at 86 is a risky move that borders on selfishness,” he said.

Just last year, some Democrats openly questioned Biden’s decision to run again.

“The presidency is a very big job and the reality is that the president will be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of the second term, and this will be the main problem,” said David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two victories. presidential campaign, told the New York Times last June.

According to an NBC poll released earlier this week, 70 percent of all Americans — including 51 percent of Democrats — believe Biden should not run for a second term. And almost half said the reason is age.

Age can play a ‘major role’ in undecideds

Meanwhile, other recent polls add to voters’ concern with Biden’s age.

“I think it’s understandable, when you’re 80 years old as president, you never know what can happen,” said Hayes, of George Washington University. “I certainly think it’s a concern. And I also think it’s a reasonable concern for voters to think about.”

If Biden is unable to campaign for an extended period of time due to health issues, his age will be a big part of the conversation about the election, Hayes said.

“And for voters whose minds are not made up, it may play a major role,” he said.

Still, Hayes said he believes it will be less of a problem for Democrats in the general election than in the Democratic primary, with younger candidates to challenge Biden.

“Partisan loyalties among Democrats do a lot on concerns about Biden’s age. And I think in the general election, that’s probably going to be more important than a lot of other things.”

Meanwhile, Cristóbal Alex, a former senior adviser on Biden’s 2020 campaign, dismissed it as a potential problem.

“I realize that it is a point that will be brought up in the media a lot. I work with people in the White House, and have more energy and run a ragged staff because it is always on the go,” said Alex.

“I don’t think it’s a problem, especially if you compare it to a possible challenger, who is only slightly younger than him, but certainly not better than Biden.”

Biden’s approval rating has plummeted

But Biden’s other major problem is that he’s running in a race burdened by approval ratings that have been negative for two years.

Biden entered the White House with an approval rating of about 53 percent, but that number has since fallen. While he has accomplished several legislative accomplishments, including a major infrastructure bill, Biden’s approval rating is now 43 percent, while 53 percent disapprove, according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

The president’s popularity suffered shortly after the controversial withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan in August 2021, and has remained low as the country deals with the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the impact of inflation.

“The big question for Biden is whether the president can win re-election with an approval rating in the 40s,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter from the University of Virginia. Political Center.

(Trump’s approval rating during the same period of his presidency is 41 percent, with a disapproval score of 53 percent.)

Biden’s approval rating must increase significantly, to around 50 percent or better, when voters go to the polls in November 2024, Kondik wrote, or a “soft” Biden disapproval could decide the election.

“If they vote against Biden en masse, they will probably lose.

Therefore, Kondik said in an interview with CBC News that “I think it is pretty dependent on having a Republican opponent. And, you know, Republicans are also very obliging.”

If he does, the 2024 election will not only be a 2020 rematch, but the main issue could be whether Americans want at least four more years of the Trump administration.

“I think that’s right,” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer. “When we elected Joe Biden in 2020, it was a vote, as people say, for sanity, for a return to normality. This will be a vote to resume normal business.

Hayes said a typical challenger to a sitting president presiding over an economy like this would talk about the problem, how do you fix it, and how the current president is wrong.

“But that’s not the kind of campaign Trump is. So, Trump might make a lot of his campaign about himself, which suits Biden.”