[ad_1]
I have said this before but I think this betting market offers very good value for those who want to risk their cash in LAB without getting the majority of the overall. The way the market is determined Starmer’s party should win 326 seats which is exactly 122 more than it won in the last general election.
This is a big question and I think people underestimate the Tory vote because many former Tory voters just say they don’t know when asked about their voting intentions. According to the latest Opninium poll, only 44% of GE2019 CON voters remain with the party, but I believe that this proportion will be even higher when they vote.
Also LAB does not need to make 122 results to form the government. What should happen is that the Tories lose their effective majority which happens to be 47 seats. As long as SF MPs in Northern Ireland are not sitting, then the target will be lower.
A big factor is the possibility of LD gains on the blue wall. What is not being seen is the massive shift of 2019 Tory voters to LAB.
The only bet here is that LAB does not get the overall majority as defined in the bet.
Mike Smithson
[ad_2]
Source link