United Airlines shares could see big gains, according to Barclays. Analyst Brandon R. Oglenski updates airlines for overweight. He also raised his price target to $80 from $52, representing a 53.5% upside from Thursday’s close. “Focused leadership and an ambitious earnings plan coupled with exceptional exposure to a growing and profitable long-haul market result in an attractive risk/reward in UAL stock despite its increasingly risky balance sheet,” Oglenski wrote in a Friday note. Strong demand for air travel ahead of the spring peak period also supports the company’s upgrade. Oglenski added that while first-quarter results could be softer due to higher fuel prices and a seasonal decline in business travel at the start of the year, “strong March results from leisure and business demand will lead to strong results guidance for 2Q23.” United posted fourth-quarter earnings in January that beat analysts’ expectations. The company also issued stronger-than-expected 2023 guidance. Of course, Oglenski noted a possible “pushback” on United’s stock upgrade. “We’ll address the possibility of immediate investor pushback on United’s upgrade going forward: Are you crazy to be long UAL with $20 billion in capital spending over the next two years?” The analyst said. “Answer: while United’s balance sheet cannot see any material de-levering in the near term, we also suspect delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing make spending the entire $20bn somewhat challenging. However, international competition in the trans-Atlantic market and trans- Pacific has been reduced because many foreign airlines are reducing their fleet of long-haul aircraft,” added Oglenski. Barclays also noted that the continued rebound in long-haul international travel will lead to large gains for United in 2023. The company said it was also impressed by the “driven management culture” at United, supporting the outlook for good margins from 2023 to 2026. United shares have soared 38.2% year to date, and are up 48% over the past 12 months. The stock is still down about 40% from pre-pandemic levels in January 2020. United Airlines shares have climbed UAL 1Y over the past 12 months — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.