This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before transferring to the Finance Corps.
Just a week into 2023, and I’ve seen Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano debate Michael Shellenberger and Joe Rogan interview Peter Ziehan. While these media impressions may seem unrelated, a common thread is sewn between the two: experts in various fields confidently claim their undisclosed opinions about Bitcoin.
Ziehan’s misunderstanding can be heard during the last 20 minutes of the interview. In fact, our friend Guy Swann just created a nearly 90-minute “Bitcoin Audible” episode dedicated to ripping Ziehand’s analysis apart. Café Bitcoin did the same recently in the first half or so of its January 9, 2023 episode.
Shellenberger has become easier to find misunderstandings, apparently going on the podcast Pomp just to show complete ignorance and say.
Source
I think one of the most appropriate questions to consider in this conversation: How is one of these two gentlemen qualified to make such an assessment in the first place?
How can people feel so comfortable when they know something? If these two people believe so much in an opinion that is clearly wrong and uninformed, why should I believe in anything?
While discussing these two interviews in a small group, one member shared something that inspired this article:
“Now both sides feel safe in their claims. In the next bull cycle, the clip will be disruptive and destroy credibility.
–Alex Brammermember of the board of directors for the Bitcoin Today Coalition (BTC)
He even turned that sentiment into a tweet, seen below:
A common characteristic of Bitcoiners is a lack of time preference – a willingness to sacrifice short-term comfort for long-term profit, rather than following every whim.
The individual is the personification of what the fiat system does to people, a symptom of what happens when money fails to provide a clear price signal. Time preferences have become so skewed that they are willing to sacrifice long-term credibility for short-term fame. They do it without thinking, not knowing what they are saying, let alone the long term implications of what they are saying. They do it because they have to, so they are thrown out as simple as the rest of us.
What happened to just saying “I don’t know”? Perhaps more importantly, what happens when all these naysayers are not only proven wrong, but completely, spectacularly and absolutely wrong in every way?
I predict in the coming months and years, those who choose to speak carelessly will begin to quickly lose the semblance of credibility that they used to have.
Gell-Mann’s cure for Amnesia is Absurdity
“In a nutshell, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open a newspaper to an article about some topic you know. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see that the reporter is completely ignorant of the facts or the problem. Often, the article is so wrong that the story goes backwards – reversing cause and effect. I call this the ‘rainy road causes rain’ story. The paper is full.
“In any case, you read with irritation or with pleasure several errors in a story, then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if another newspaper is more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you read. . You turn the page , and forget what you know.”
-Michael Crichton
Bitcoin is the orange pill that wakes you up from the matrix, yes, but what if the narrative becomes absurd? What if the criticisms and grumbles become so wrong, that the so-called experts are no longer respected, let alone listened to?
I am a fan of Ziehan. I find his books interesting and informative. They are well looked after and thoroughly researched. But after the interview, I don’t know what to think anymore. After hearing him speak, before hearing Bitcoin criticism, all I heard was quasi-automaton; The character is well-rehearsed in speaking in a polished sound bite. His Bitcoin analysis is smooth, well-articulated and convincing. Man, he sure did. And everything he said was wrong.
I see the next few years as the precipice for the dissolution of today’s experts. Like the economist uncle in the dystopian tale “The Mandibles,” This expert will have the answer to everything, but not yet able to explain things. Slowly but surely, people will realize that the world created by these “experts” in the theoretical mind no longer exists. Reality will eventually collapse.
But you don’t have to wait.
Once you know Bitcoin, you know that the long-term price is slowly approaching infinity as central banks gradually, then suddenly, add monetary units to the system to manipulate the cost of capital as they see fit.
Saving in bitcoin can be a bumpy road for those who haven’t seen its value, but in my eyes, it’s the safest thing I have. As I sit down to reflect on this tumultuous week in the bear market, I feel like I’ve never been more bullish than I am right now.
This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.