As new air defences appear in Moscow, Russians see more signs of war at home

More visible signs of war are emerging in Russia, with air defenses placed on Moscow’s rooftops and Kremlin officials pointedly denying the vast amount of Western-provided weapons to Ukraine.

Reports emerged on social media last week that anti-aircraft missiles had been spotted at key buildings in central Moscow, including at the defense ministry’s command center. Military drills also took place outside the capital, with Russia’s defense ministry saying troops were “conducting exercises to repel mock airstrikes.”

There is nothing abnormal about a country having air defenses around major military installations or major cities. But recent military exercises testing mobile S-300 batteries around the capital, coupled with social media reports that Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missiles have been installed on buildings in central Moscow, suggest Russia may be strengthening its air defenses. .

The development comes alongside tensions over tanks and other heavy weapons promised to Ukraine by its Western allies, prompting Russia to weigh its implications for the conflict.

With arms shipments on the rise, some Russia watchers say there is real concern on the part of Russia’s defense about the potential for the war to heat up closer to home.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst for the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization, believes the decision to build up the defenses stems from concerns that Moscow needs to be prepared for the unexpected.

“That seems to be the case [the] The Ukrainians have capabilities that allow them to attack inside Russia,” Ignatov told CBC News from Brussels, referring to high-profile attacks in Russian-controlled Crimea and targets inside Russia.

Ignatov believes Russia is unclear how far Kyiv can go, given the billions of dollars in Western military aid flowing into the country.

Dani Nedal, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said the West has been willing to arm Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons, despite initial hesitation.

“Restraint has eroded over time,” Nedal said, noting the West’s shift from its previous position of providing mainly defensive weapons to Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that Moscow’s view recently announced the delivery of tanks and other aid was part of its “growing” and “direct involvement in the conflict.”

‘Highly Focused’ Deployment

While those living in Moscow may be watching what happens with the new air defenses, Ignatov doesn’t think domestic considerations are driving the deployment.

“He didn’t put it [them] everywhere,” he said. “Not massive, very focused.”

Nedal said the deployment could not be done in secret. And he believes the Russian government has underestimated its importance.

“If you were the Russian government, you wouldn’t wait until there was an attack to start putting up air defenses,” he said.

But Dan Storyev, the English-language managing editor of OVD-Info, an independent human rights group that monitors protests in Russia, is more skeptical about domestic political motives driving the new air defenses.

“In my opinion, there is no difficult military reason to deploy [these] in Moscow in such a way,” Storyev said by email, speaking as an individual and not on behalf of the organization.

Storyev said the move could “reassure Muscovites of their security, but it will also serve as a reminder of the war.”

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War did the same, recently suggesting that the Kremlin is deploying it “to produce an inflammatory image that portrays the war as more threatening to Russian society.”

Emily Harding, deputy director and senior fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and Intelligence Studies in Washington, said air defenses could be part of a larger message that Russia is sending about the war.

“They have played this conflict, from the beginning, as a defensive action by them, as opposed to an offensive action,” said Harding, who investigated Russian interference in the 2016 US election, while previously working on the US Senate Select Committee. in Intelligence.

“They have told themselves and their people that this is designed to defend Russia against NATO disclosures.”

As Russia’s war with Ukraine approaches its one-year anniversary, there are concerns about the expected new phase of the conflict; Kyiv predicts more Russian troops will be drafted into the war.

If Russia pushes for a new offensive, that could give it the impetus to tighten its own defenses – as Moscow is doing. “If they are preparing for a new attack, they should care about the defense of critical objects,” Ignatov said.

However, Harding said a Ukrainian attack on Moscow appeared unlikely and unplanned.

“It seems that every time the conflict seems to escalate, the parties will take it back to the interior of Ukraine,” he said.

“And I think that everyone in the conflict remains limited. Russia doesn’t want more war. NATO certainly doesn’t want more war.”