As Carney seeks strengthened global alliances, is it time Canada join the EU?

Since taking office, Prime Minister Mark Carney has made his desire to cut Canada’s economic dependence on the United States crystal clear. And along the way, he’s referenced Europe as a top destination for Canadian goods.

“As the most European of the non-European countries, Canada looks first to the European Union to build a better world,” Carney said last June at an EU-Canada summit in Brussels.

From that point on came steady and deeper integration. Canada has since signed a security and defence partnership with the EU, and this week the two sides agreed to enhance their existing free trade agreement.

This effort to tie Europe and Canada closer together raises the question for some: Should Canada join the EU?

CBC’s The House spoke to experts and former officials about the feasibility of the idea and what Canada could gain — and lose — by joining the group.

Is it possible for Canada to join the EU?

The answer is yes, according to Augusto Lopez Claros, a former World Bank economist and executive director of the Global Governance Forum. But it would require some modifications to the Treaty on European Union, which governs the group.

Under the treaty, any “European state” which respects the EU’s values can apply to become a member. While that initially disqualifies Canada, Claros said the group can revise the treaty through unanimous consent of all members, and each country would need to ratify the changes in their legislatures.

“Canada already behaves as a member of a values-based institutional club, which is what the European Union is,” said Claros, who supports the idea.

“Canada is highly vulnerable to its relationship with one of those superpowers — the United States,” Claros said. “And it was fine in the good old days, but those good old days are gone.”

Claros argued that Canada joining the EU would not dilute the country’s identity. Instead, it would amplify Canada’s influence around the world.

“If the world is moving toward regulatory blocks shaped by shared values … then Canada must decide where it wishes to sit at the table. At the moment, it doesn’t sit at any table,” Claros said.

Last summer, Carney said Canada wants a closer partnership with the EU, but doesn’t intend to become a member. But according to polling from Abacus Data, just under half of Canadians are supportive of the idea.

“I’m not saying there’s momentum here,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. “There’s no real big campaign. But this is an idea that I think many Canadians would be open to if seriously broached.”

Coletto said he’s not surprised to see Canadians interested in the idea since there’s a feeling of betrayal toward the United States, which continues to hammer the Canadian economy with tariffs on key sectors like aluminum and steel.

“Canadians do feel that this was like a ruptured divorce,” Coletto said. “And I think they are now asking themselves, ‘who else could we partner with?’”

Canada would sacrifice sovereignty: trade expert

Meredith Lilly, a former trade adviser for prime minister Stephen Harper who now teaches international economic policy at Carleton University, said the idea would come with costs to Canada’s sovereignty.

“Canada would actually cease to be a sovereign player in trade relations with other countries,” Lilly said. “What that means is the European Parliament would manage and decide what Canada’s trade policy would be. It would not be Canada.”

Canada would only get one vote in the European Parliament and membership would also complicate border treaties and immigration policies.

“We would have to guarantee free movement of Europeans into Canada,” Lily said. “And this would necessarily result in the Americans hardening the U.S. border with Canada for things like trade and travel and tourism.”

Lilly argues that if Canada really wants to deepen ties with Europe, it could start by getting more European nations to ratify the Canada-EU trade deal — like Belgium, Italy, Greece and Ireland.

She also said Canada and Europe should not quibble over differences in their regulatory systems in an age where there are big questions about the long-term survival of democracies.

Instead, all parties should acknowledge they’re advanced economies with good practices, and move ahead with forging new economic relationships accordingly.

An alternative alliance

Fen Osler Hampson, co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, said “EU membership for Canada is a non-starter.”

“It’s an uncertain political project and it is not a quick shield against tariffs,” Hampson said. “Accession is a lengthy process and Canada would be starting from zero as a non-European country.”

Hampson said the question Canada needs to answer is not which club it should join, but how to raise the costs for Washington when it bullies neighbours with tariffs.

He’s suggesting a modern version of the Hanseatic League — a 13th-century union of merchant towns in northern Europe that pooled their trading power to deter predatory neighbours.

The new version could include Canada, Germany, key EU members and other nations like the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Hampson said this group could account for about 30 per cent of the world’s GDP.

“This isn’t about ganging up. It’s about setting clear rules on the road for great powers, whether they’re in Washington or Beijing. And the message is a simple one: you respect our sovereignty,” Hampson said.

Hampson believes the combined economic might of this new league could help balance against great powers, especially since foreign investors hold a hefty sum of U.S. debt.

“Even a hint that some of those big creditors, which by the way include Canada, might rebalance would move Wall Street in a day.” Hampson said.

John Manley, who served as finance minister to former prime minister Jean Chrétien, acknowledged the need to build trade relationships elsewhere but said Canada needs to remember “that magnet of the world’s largest economy is right on our borders.”

“It would be very hard for the moon to decide that it was going to orbit Mars. It would be hard for Canada to decide that the U.S. becomes a less important trading partner,” Manley said.

Manley said there’s merit in Hampson’s proposal for a Hanseatic League because other international groups like the United Nations and World Trade Organization are struggling to remain relevant.

“I think there’s a window of opportunity here that’s been created by the chaos that’s emanating from Washington, and it’s an opportunity for us to seize it,” Manley said.