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With Ukraine’s incursion deep into Russian-held territory, there were fresh signs on Friday of chaos and disquiet among Russia’s military and political leaders as they prepare for a Ukrainian offensive, for which their forces may be unprepared.
The latest manifestation of the tension came from Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner’s mercenary group, who used what he said were the freshly bloodied corpses of fighters as a backdrop for another tirade against the military’s top command. Not for the first time, he threatened to pull his fighters out of the long-held Ukrainian city of Bakhmut if the Ministry of Defense did not provide more ammunition.
It is just one of a series of events that contribute to the sense that the war effort, and by extension the country, has been adrift, even as Russia prepares to observe the biggest military holiday of the year next Tuesday.
Two explosions rocked the Kremlin in the middle of the night on Wednesday, in what Russia claimed was a botched drone strike by Ukraine. Denying the allegations, Ukraine says Russia may have carried it out to try to rally domestic support for its failed war effort. Regardless of the culprit, symbolically, many signal the Kremlin’s weakness.
That came along with attacks on several oil storage facilities, ignited huge fires, and train derailments both near the border and far from the battlefield, all attributed to drones or Ukrainian sabotage.
Adding to the building anxiety, the head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, strangely accused the United States in an interview of having started a war to seize territory before the catastrophic eruption of the volcano in Yellowstone National Park, which he did. said it will wipe out life in North America.
“Everybody was nervous, sitting on the edge of their seats,” said Clifford Kupchan, a Russia specialist and chairman of the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk assessment firm. “You have the most respected Russian military holiday with the upcoming Ukrainian attack and all these explosive events.”
The holiday, Victory Day, commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, and in the last two decades President Vladimir V. Putin has turned military spectacle into a centerpiece of his government.
That ratchets up the stakes for Moscow, Mr. Kupchan said. “This is another cause of the high tension we are seeing today and the jitters on both sides,” he said.
Mr. Putin remained silent, as he has in the past in the midst of fast-paced events. But he is under pressure to rally the country in his scheduled national Victory Day speech.
“The longer Putin is silent, everyone will think he is confused and doesn’t know what to do,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter turned political analyst, wrote on Telegram.
In one sign of growing security fears, Red Square, in the heart of Moscow, and the place to see the elite during parades, has been closed to the public since the end of April. Many parades across the country have been scaled back or canceled.
But the one in Moscow was described as the usual display of raw power, with precision, even as Russia’s military reputation has waned. Some pro-war bloggers have attacked the business-as-usual parade, saying men and weapons would be better deployed in Ukraine.
Part of it is because it is more riding on the outcome of the anticipated Ukrainian drive.
“Many people see this attack as decisive in the war,” said Dmitri Kuznets, who monitors military bloggers for Meduza, an independent Russian website based in Riga, Latvia. “Everyone is very emotional and people’s interpretations depend on their political views.”
In a sign of growing anxiety, Russian occupation authorities on Friday ordered civilians living near the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region, in southern Ukraine, to leave their homes and businesses.
“I would like to emphasize that this is a mandatory measure to ensure the safety of citizens living in the front areas,” the Kremlin-appointed governor of the region, Yevgeny Balitsky, said in a statement. He also stated that he thought the attack had started.
Although many did not expect Ukraine to launch an offensive until the spring mud hardened in mid-May, a series of pinpricks in Russia were seen by military analysts as designed to keep Russia from moving more troops to the front lines.
Russia accused Ukraine of using two drones to target the Kremlin this week, saying they fired at the fortress walls. In addition to the attack on an oil depot in Crimea, on Friday, a drone struck a refinery in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia, Russian state media reported.
Mr. Prigozhin had uttered similar words earlier, but Mr. Putin did not like to punish the people or the top military leaders who were humiliated by the mercenary leader – Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister, and General Valery V. Gerasimov, the chief of staff of the armed forces.
During the war, Mr. Prigozhin and his generals have maneuvered bureaucratically and on the battlefield to gain the upper hand in directing the war and gain the trust of Mr. Putin. The president, in turn, has played both sides one by one to ensure, analysts say, that he does not assess too much power.
There is clear pressure, spoken or unspoken, on Mr. Prigozhin and other commanders to produce some results to brag about for Victory Day. In a statement on Friday, Mr Prigozhin said he had expected to take Bakhmut, but had been thwarted by “military bureaucrats” who cut off the supply of cannons the previous day.
Mr. Prigozhin announced that the retreat would take place next Wednesday, the day after the holiday. The gory video and statement caused an uproar, with some critics accusing Mr Prigozhin of “blackmail”, while others praised his bravery. One pro-military blogger compared him to the hero of the movie “The Last Samurai,” a soldier willing to sacrifice his own life “so that the emperor would open his eyes.”
Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s despotic Chechen Republic, condemned Mr Prigozhin for displaying the corpses of his men in public protest, and offered to replace Wagner’s mercenaries in completing the task at Bakhmut. He also chastised the Ministry of Defense for logistical and supply problems.
Mr. Prigozhin’s threats to leave were not fully credited, appearing only in a series of rash statements or new attempts to get Mr. Putin’s attention.
There was no immediate official reaction, but an earlier outburst by Mr. Prigozhin won some of the ammunition and recruits he wanted, though the numbers remained grim.
Some Russian analysts said they expected the Defense Ministry to meet some of Mr. Prigozhin’s demands this time, because there was no ready alternative for the estimated 10,000 people in Bakhmut.
Ukrainian and American intelligence officials said no move by Wagner’s forces suggested a repositioning, and instead viewed Mr. Prigozhin’s comments as a sign of chronic royal intrigue and bureaucratic maneuvering among Russian leaders.
“I would doubt that Russia would withdraw from Bakhmut, so it is histrionic,” Mr Kupchan said.
Milan Mazaeva, Ivan Nechepurenko, Marc Santora, Julian Barnes and Matthew Mpoke Bigg contribute reports.
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