Sir Issac Newton didn’t have to say that the economy in downward motion remains downward, but that won’t stop Americans from believing it.
After so many years, mentally, socio-politically, and economically, it would be hard to blame people for not being too optimistic entering the new year, which is usually a time for hope and new beginnings. But a new poll from Gallup, which surveyed more than 1,800 American adults, found that eight out of 10 respondents expect 2023 to be another year of economic hardship, with higher taxes and a growing budget deficit.
“Americans are greeting 2023 with skepticism and little hope that the economic struggles capped in 2022 will abate,” Gallup research consultant Megan Brenan wrote. “Some US adults also predict the partisan politics that plague the country will improve, not an unreasonable expectation given that there will be divided government in 2023 after Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives.”
Concerns about sky-high inflation and persistent talk of an ongoing recession dominated economic discourse last year. The financial woes only add to America’s anxiety about COVID, racism and bigotry, and mental health and isolation.
The Federal Reserve scrambled in 2022 to raise interest rates in an effort to reduce inflation because Americans shelled out more money to buy a house, fill the gas tank, go to the grocery store, or splurge on other everyday goods.
But that’s partly what causes fears of a recession. And, many Americans do not think the Fed’s strategy will be effective. According to Gallup, more than six in 10 American adults think that prices will still rise at high levels and the stock market will continue to decline in 2023 (even if inflation is slowing). And more than half of Americans expect unemployment to rise by 2023, which is not yet a concern as workers continue to quit even as layoffs, particularly in technology, hit the labor force.
America isn’t just bleak about its bank accounts and workforce. Ninety percent of respondents surveyed said 2023 will be a year of political conflict in the US; if the unprecedented mess unfolding in the US House of Representatives with the will of Speaker Kevin McCarthy is any indication of the week into the year, that prediction holds water.
Additionally, more than 70% think crime rates will rise, and 56% predict there will be “a lot” of labor strikes by unions.
If you haven’t been confused enough, international predictions are also pessimistic. Eighty-five percent of US adults predict a 2023 filled with international strife rather than peace. A bright spot, however, is that 64% of Americans expect Russia’s power to decline, which Gallup points to the country’s likely decline in the war against Ukraine.
Whatever happens in 2023, the continued setbacks and shell shock from the start of the pandemic in 2020 will have a significant impact on Americans in the 2020s that most expect.
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