One of the main concerns is the possibility of an AI arms race, with countries competing to develop the most advanced technology for military purposes. (Getty Images)
Aartificial intelligence (AI) technology, with its humanoid thinking, is rapidly becoming an important factor in the power dynamics between competing powers in international relations. The increasing use of AI for military and strategic purposes by major powers, such as the US, China and Russia, has raised concerns about its potential implications for global stability.
One of the main concerns is the possibility of an AI arms race, with countries competing to develop the most advanced technology for military purposes. This can lead to tensions and increase the risk of conflict between countries. In addition, the development of AI-enabled weapons, such as autonomous drones and robots, could further erode the traditional boundaries between war and peace, making it difficult to distinguish between the two.
There is also the potential for AI to strengthen existing power dynamics between countries. As AI systems become more sophisticated, they can become better at recognizing patterns and predicting outcomes, giving those in control an advantage in decision making. This could lead to a situation where a few powerful countries dominate global affairs, with smaller countries relegated to the sidelines.
At the same time, AI can also be a force for positive change in international relations. For example, AI-enabled systems can be used to monitor and predict global trends, such as the spread of disease, environmental degradation and social unrest. In many countries, AI is playing an important supporting role in the surveillance and diagnosis of Covid-19. There is an incentive for countries to collaborate to solve common challenges, promoting greater cooperation and collaboration between them.
China and the US dominate the AI landscape, through scientific publications as well as research and development (R&D) expenditures. Beyond this, both countries dominate in AI collaboration, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index by Stanford University. Edmund Andrews of Stanford University finds the fact that the US and China cooperate extensively in the field of AI research, despite being geopolitical rivals, counterintuitive. It is unusual and raises serious concerns that the US is working more on AI research with China than with the UK, an important ally in Europe.
US-China AI collaboration has grown fivefold since 2010, reaching a total of 9,660 papers by 2021, while US-UK collaboration has tripled to 3,560 papers. The teamwork between these two countries is growing faster than any other country pair. This raises concerns about US foreign policy goals and research priorities in AI. The US and China appear to be able to put aside their differences and cooperate in this critical sector.
It can be argued that although China, in 2021, filed the majority of global AI patents at 51.69%, the US, with only 16.92% of global AI patents, benefits more from Chinese know-how. It can be seen that the US makes practical decisions with extensive collaboration with China in AI research, because China has a significant AI dominance and knowledge base, and the US benefits from this. On the other hand, China could benefit by gaining access to the US market and academic community. The two geopolitical rivals suggested to the world that collaboration is possible when it is mutually beneficial.
Other countries seem to be lagging behind in promoting collaborative AI research. This is a worrying trend because AI is an important field that requires international cooperation to make strides and tackle global challenges, such as climate change.
Governments that do not aggressively promote international collaboration in AI research lose out on the advantages of knowledge and technology transfer. Instead, they rely on other countries to provide them with access to research and cutting-edge technology, which cannot be used in the long term. The fact that the US and China can set aside geopolitical concerns and work closely together on AI development also underscores the value of international cooperation. To continue competing in the AI race, other countries must adopt similar strategies and prioritize international partnerships.
Technology is directly linked to the country’s economic trajectory. Countries where AI R&D expenditure exceeds others may reap economic benefits. The US and China are clear examples of countries that rely heavily on technology to dominate on a global scale, for war purposes or for manufacturing and production. Overall, AI has a role to play in shaping the response to the five global risks of 2023 from climate change, cybersecurity, food security, energy transition and health. The role can be negative or positive.
For cyber security, as the protection of computer systems, networks and assets, countries that lead the development of AI will acquire lethal AI cyber weapons. Cybersecurity is not a science limited to information technology, but also a tool of global political power.
For example, North Korea is often accused of global cyber crimes. Cybercrime-as-heist, using cyberspace tools, is a crime of opportunity. Some estimates note that, in 2022 alone, the closed regime stole more than $1 billion in virtual assets in crypto currency. The cybercrime business enables North Korea to increase what the country has inadvertently given up through international sanctions.
Russia has come under frequent attack for using cyber weapons for political purposes. For example, there is considerable international commentary on how Russia allegedly interfered in the 2016 US election to benefit current former president Donald Trump by using Facebook and other social media platforms. AI weapons could allow regimes to engage in political meddling in the future.
China and the US are also part of a group of nation-states that conduct cyberespionage, including intellectual property theft, against each other. For example, China is said to have hacked into the servers of the US Office of Personnel Management, obtaining the personal identity information of US federal employees. This tactic can be useful in targeting employees with financial and personal problems to become spies on behalf of other countries.
In 2022, the US was accused of hacking into China’s Northwestern Polytechnic University to collect sensitive and strategic data. The US reportedly used the National Security Agency (responsible for foreign signals, electronic intelligence gathering and cybersecurity and signals counterintelligence for the US) to hack into universities for military research data. Finally, countries are using their cyber capabilities. AI becomes an accelerant of lethality for countries involved in AI research and development.
Amid these global developments, where does Africa stand?
Several African countries have already implemented AI laws. Botswana, Egypt, Mauritius, Tunisia and Zambia are among them. From a continent with more than 50 countries, this is not productive. For the African Free Trade Agreement to accelerate as a regional economic tool, a common tool for future technologies is mandatory. The level of policy disconnection, sluggishness and aloofness in Africa is at odds with the rapid decision-making required in the dynamic world of AI and technological evolution.
The intersection between AI and international relations has the potential to shape global power dynamics in the coming years. While there are concerns about risks and challenges, there are also opportunities for AI to be a force for positive change to promote greater collaboration between countries. For its part, Africa needs to carve out its AI typology by integrating and implementing policies rapidly in line with emerging technologies.
Ultimately, the future of AI in international relations will depend on how we manage risks and opportunities and whether we can develop a framework that promotes global stability and cooperation.
The author is from the 4IR and Digital Policy Research Unit in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Johannesburg.