As Nigeria gradually inches toward the 2027 general elections, political calculations are already unfolding across the country. In Jigawa State, however, the unfolding drama revolves around one central figure, former governor and immediate past Minister of Defence, Muhammed Badaru Abubakar.
The going was good between Badaru and the government of President Bola Tinubu until the incursion of America into Nigeria’s affairs, all in the guise of checking religious genocide. President Donald Trump had labeled Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern and threatened to strike Nigeria, but after weeks of dialogue and communication between Abuja and Washington, both countries seemed to forge an alliance but that was not without forceful or otherwise exit of Badaru, who was replaced with former Chief of Defence Staff, Christopher Musa.
In recent weeks, a series of political engagements involving the former minister have stirred intense debate among political observers and party loyalists in the state. Although Badaru has publicly dismissed reports suggesting he may defect from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), his recent interactions with prominent opposition figures have raised eyebrows and reignited conversations about the direction of Jigawa politics ahead of 2027.
SPONSOR AD
While some analysts see the meetings as routine political consultations typical of northern political culture, others believe they may represent early signals of shifting alliances that could reshape the political landscape of the state.
A Season of Political Speculation
The latest wave of speculation did not emerge overnight. Rather, it has been building gradually through a combination of political symbolism, public engagements, and the activities of Badaru’s supporters.
The conversation intensified when a prominent loyalist of the former minister, Zakari Kafin-Hausa, shared a video of a cleric criticising the policies of President Bola Tinubu on social media. In the video, the cleric alleged that the administration favours southern Nigeria despite strong electoral support from northern voters in the 2023 election.
Although the post did not directly implicate Badaru himself, political watchers interpreted it as a subtle expression of dissatisfaction among some northern political actors. The speculation was further fuelled by Badaru’s recent meetings with key figures from across the political divide.
Within a week, the former minister held two separate meetings with Mustapha Lamido, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Jigawa during the 2023 election and son of veteran politician Sule Lamido.
Mustapha Lamido himself has been rumoured to be considering a move from the PDP to the ADC, a development that has added another layer of intrigue to the unfolding political dynamics.
Badaru also reportedly met with former senator Ubale Shitu, a notable figure within the ADC structure in Jigawa, as well as with former governor Sule Lamido a political rival with whom he once shared a bitter confrontation.
However, Mr Badaru’s absence at the APC congresses particularly the state congress held on Tuesday has intensified the suspicion of a potential parting of ways with the party that provided him the platform to become governor and minister.
Many high-profile figures, including Governor Umar Namadi, National APC representatives, and 2023 governorship aspirants Farouk Aliyu and Sabo Nakudu, attended the congress.
Other bigwigs who attended included former Immigration Comptroller General, Muhammad Babandede, federal and state lawmakers and the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Haruna Aliyu.
The congress elected Ahmad Garba as the state chairperson and 35 other executive members from across the state’s three senatorial zones. In his inaugural address, Mr Garba delivered what appears to be a warning to the former minister.
He said no individual can successfully play politics in isolation, warning that the new leadership would not tolerate “dual loyalty.” Some observers interpreted the remarks as referencing Mr Badaru’s ties with both the APC and the ADC in the state.
From Rivals to Ramadan Visits?
For many observers, the meeting with Sule Lamido was perhaps the most surprising.
During Badaru’s tenure as governor, Lamido faced criminal charges that resulted in his brief detention in 2017 following accusations of defamation and public disturbance. The legal battle at the time deepened the political rivalry between the two camps.
Yet in what supporters describe as a “gesture of reconciliation,” Badaru recently visited Lamido at his residence — an act that many in Jigawa politics have interpreted in different ways.
Badaru’s allies insist the meeting should not be politicised.
Speaking on a local radio programme, Kafin-Hausa confirmed that several opposition figures had indeed visited the former minister, but he framed the engagements as social interactions linked to the spirit of Ramadan.
According to him, the visits were meant to foster peace and unity among political leaders in the state.
In the political culture of northern Nigeria, such visits are not unusual, particularly during religious periods when leaders exchange courtesy calls regardless of party affiliation.
However, the timing of these meetings occurring just as political conversations about 2027 begin to gather momentum has made them difficult for observers to dismiss as purely ceremonial.
The APC Congress Factor
If the meetings created curiosity, Badaru’s absence from the recent APC state congress in Jigawa intensified the speculation.
The congress, which brought together the party’s major stakeholders, was attended by Governor Namadi, federal lawmakers, former governorship aspirants and several influential party leaders.
At the end of the exercise, Ahmad Garba was elected as the new state chairman of the party alongside 35 executive members.
While the event was widely seen as a demonstration of unity within the party, political analysts noted the absence of Badaru, who remains one of the APC’s founding figures in the state.
During his inaugural speech, the new chairman delivered remarks that some interpreted as a veiled warning against political “dual loyalty.”
He emphasised that politics cannot be successfully played in isolation and that the party leadership would expect full commitment from its members.
Although the statement did not mention any individual directly, several observers believe it reflected growing concern within the party about emerging internal alignments.
No Rift With Governor Namadi
Despite the swirling rumours, there is little evidence of an open confrontation between Badaru and his successor, Governor Umar Namadi. In fact, the two leaders have consistently maintained a cordial relationship in public. Badaru was instrumental in supporting Namadi’s emergence as APC governorship candidate in 2022 and later endorsed him during the election campaign.
Since leaving office, he has also spoken positively about the governor’s performance, stating on several occasions that Namadi’s achievements in office have validated the choice of his administration’s successor.
Governor Namadi, on his part, has repeatedly dismissed suggestions that divisions exist within the state’s ruling party.
He has urged party members to remain focused on governance and avoid being distracted by political rumours. Observers say this mutual respect has helped preserve relative stability within the APC structure in Jigawa.
The Underlying Political Tensions
The roots of the current tensions can be traced back to the internal contest that produced Namadi as the APC governorship candidate in 2022.
At the time, several political heavyweights within the party had expected to clinch the ticket, only to be surprised by the emergence of Namadi, who had previously served as commissioner and deputy governor but was widely seen as a quiet technocrat rather than a dominant political figure.
Since assuming office in 2023, Governor Namadi has pursued a governance approach that prioritises institutional reforms over traditional political patronage. His administration has introduced changes in civil service administration, tightened financial oversight, and restructured the recruitment process for teachers.
While these reforms have been praised by policy experts and development analysts, they have not been universally popular among political loyalists who expected rewards in the form of appointments and influence.
Some disgruntled party members have taken to local radio stations and social media platforms to express their dissatisfaction, arguing that the administration has sidelined grassroots political mobilisers. This discontent has created a subtle but noticeable undercurrent within the party.
What It Could Mean for 2027
For now, many believe it is too early to draw firm conclusions about Badaru’s political intentions.
According to political commentator Muhammad Haruna, the former minister is known for his cautious and calculated style of politics.
“He is not someone who rushes into political decisions,” Haruna said. “He usually studies the environment carefully before taking any major step.”
Haruna also noted that Jigawa’s political environment is generally more stable compared to many other states in northern Nigeria.
This stability, he argued, often allows political leaders to shape the direction of voter behaviour more effectively.
Given these factors, many politicians in the state are currently positioning themselves strategically, seeking to align with whichever political arrangement appears most likely to dominate the 2027 race.
A Political Puzzle Still Unfolding
For now, the question remains open. Is Badaru merely engaging in routine political outreach aimed at building bridges across party lines? Or are these moves the early signs of a broader political realignment in Jigawa ahead of the next election cycle? Until clearer signals emerge, the former minister’s recent activities will likely continue to dominate political discussions across the state.
What is certain, however, is that the road to 2027 has already begun and in Jigawa State, the political chessboard is quietly being rearranged.
In their response, the Jigawa state government The Jigawa State Government dismissed concerns over the recent political moves by former governor and ex-Minister of Defence, Muhammed Badaru Abubakar, saying his possible defection from the ruling party would not weaken the party in the state or at the national level.
The Chief Press Secretary to the Jigawa State Governor, Hamisu Mohammed Gumel, made the remark while reacting to the absence of the former governor at the recent state congress of the party and his alleged meetings with politicians believed to be members of opposition parties.
Speaking on the development, Gumel said although the government had observed Badaru’s recent activities, including visits to some opposition politicians and social media posts showing such engagements, the development was “not a thing to worry about” for the APC in Jigawa.
According to him, even if the former governor eventually decides to leave the party, it would not diminish the strength of the ruling party either in Jigawa State or across the country.
“Of course, we have noticed that the former governor was not present at the state congress, and as you rightly said, he has recently been seen visiting the houses of some opposition party members and taking pictures for social media posts,” Gumel said.
He described the development as unfortunate, adding that it was surprising for a politician of Badaru’s stature to allow himself to be influenced by what he called inexperienced individuals pursuing personal political ambitions.
“As much as I can say this is unfortunate, it is not a thing to worry about because even if he ultimately leaves the APC, which is what he appears to be contemplating now, it will not reduce anything for the party either in the state or at the national level,” he stated.
Gumel further argued that the politicians the former governor had been meeting with were individuals who had allegedly lost political relevance in Jigawa State.
According to him, there are currently no strong or functional opposition parties capable of challenging the ruling APC in the state.
“Firstly, there are no functional opposition parties in Jigawa State right now; all the people he has been dragged to visit are politicians who have lost relevance and are themselves political liabilities,” he said.
The governor’s spokesman added that if the intention behind the visits was to rebuild the former minister’s political influence, the effort had not succeeded.
He further claimed that Badaru was facing political uncertainty, describing his recent moves as actions that could further weaken his political standing in the state.
“I think the former minister is in a quandary and confusion. His current moves are akin to further stripping himself naked politically because everyone knows he has political weight in the state,” he said.
Gumel also referenced the recent House of Representatives bye-election in the former governor’s area, alleging that Badaru failed to deliver victory for the APC in his own ward.
“This is a politician, a former governor and then serving minister, who could not win even his ward for the party during the recent House of Representatives membership bye-election in his area,” he added.
He maintained that the decision on whether to remain in the APC or leave the party ultimately rests with the former minister.
“So, as far as we are concerned, it is up to the former minister to decide if leaving the party is wise for him,” he said.
UPDATE NEWS:
Nigerians can now invest ₦2.5 million on premium domains and profit about ₦17-₦25 million. All earnings paid in US Dollars. Rather than wonder, click here to find out how it works.