A year ago, Good Governance Africa (GGA) issued a press statement saying that Vladimir Putin “is quickly increasing the kind of brinkmanship that history teaches us will lead to another world war if not handled skillfully… The impact of this behavior is truly global. , and the negative impact on African countries cannot be underestimated.
A year later, we don’t (yet) have a world war, but African countries have been deeply affected by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Many of the pre-Covid gains against poverty have waned, food security concerns are rising and inflation is eating away at any real wages before 2020. It will be a challenge to recover from the pandemic without supply chains and global energy disruptions taking place. by war.
Globally, GDP growth is expected to slow significantly in 2023. The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts “a one-year recession in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, as well as in the UK”. Monetary tightening in the US is likely to lead to economic stagnation there.
While this is good enough news to keep global interest rates stable, it means less demand for African products in the European and US markets. GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast by the EIU at 2.9% for 2023. It does not help that the growth forecast for South Africa (by the EIU) – the largest economy in southern Africa – is at 1.3%, because the growth is greater. the economy usually drives growth in small, neighboring countries. The South African Reserve Bank put the figure at 0.03%.
In addition, the ongoing war and China’s reversal of the dangerous zero-Covid policy will keep the oil price at $80 / barrel until the end of 2024. This is temporarily good for the income basket of the African oil exporting countries, but the oil wealth continues. to appear in the econometric regression as strongly associated with underdevelopment. In other words, it is always a question of where the oil money landed up and what is done with it.
Typically, in the absence of good governance, oil rents rise for ruling elites whose incentive to build a broad tax base is non-existent. Oppression of citizens and co-optation of powerful enemies became easy choices. In addition, high oil prices ironically finance unsustainable fuel subsidies for imported fuel made from crude oil African countries such as Nigeria and Angola.
Not only will oil prices remain high, but grains and fertilizers will be difficult to access. It is a key input for domestic food security and African countries continue to suffer a double burden due to high input costs and the impact of climate change reducing food production.
It is not clear whether Russia will continue to implement the grain deal that allows for the safe delivery of food from Ukraine to global markets, especially as sanctions pressure increases. Russia, of course, tried to weaponize the EU’s dependence on its gas, but the policy is generally backfired, even though energy bills have gone through the roof.
Apart from the economy, the main implication of Good Governance Africa warned is the geopolitical impact of Russian aggression: “Putin’s aggression has destroyed the structure of the post-Cold War order that Russia has been integral in maintaining. This action makes a mockery of the UN Security Council which is a permanent member. The fact that Putin openly threatening the nuclear option is brinkmanship at a new level.
African countries are ripe for the old Cold War rivalry again. Business day wrote in an editorial last week: “When our navy is in formation with Russian frigates today, we are sending a clear message to the world. First, we do not care if Ukrainians are bombed, kidnapped, raped and executed with mass murder. We are happy to give Putin’s regime is a platform to project international solidarity on the anniversary of the illegal and inhumane invasion of a sovereign country. The editorial finds it difficult to explain this solidarity, even given the historical relationship between the former USSR (ironically including Ukraine) and the ANC. Indeed, it would be very difficult to blame South Africa’s position in any coherent foreign policy analysis terms.
The Financial Times reported that at a global security meeting in Munich, Germany, this week, Namibia’s prime minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhile said that Namibia’s focus is on “solving the problem, not on changing mistakes… better used to promote development in Ukraine, in Africa, in Asia, in the European Union itself where many people are suffering.
But this is judgment at best, as it creates a false dichotomy. This shows that one can move to a developing country as if there was no war. It sounds ridiculous but clearly it must be said that Ukraine will find it very difficult to invest in “development” when its cities are bombed.
The only credible defense against Russia’s continued attacks appears to be investing in weapons that will repel them. It is not either “money for guns” or “money for development”; there is no development until the gunfire stops and it clearly won’t stop if Ukraine just stops defending itself.
Most of the African countries that abstained (26 out of 54 countries) from the UN movement to condemn Russia’s aggression have argued, like South Africa’s minister of international relations Naledi Pandor, that it is “simple and infantile” to think that it is an international condemnation or to ask Russia to withdraw. will change Putin’s mind. That seems to be missing the point. Russia’s leaders are barely able to negotiate.
The African countries most likely not to punish Russia are those that import the highest arms from Russia as a proportion of total imports of military equipment. This is as realpolitik from the situation and it seems to translate the leader is not able to discern strategic foreign policy errors.
A year after Putin’s botched invasion of Ukraine, the world is in turmoil, the poor are suffering the most, and African leaders can’t seem to find the backbone to punish Russia. In South Africa, they are playing naval games with the aggressors, and China, even though their navy has been badly damaged. As global geopolitical fault lines deepen, African countries seem increasingly at sea.
Ross Harvey is Director of Research and Programs at Good Governance Africa, a non-profit, independent, pan-African Applied Policy Research think tank.