A Virginia special election could change the state’s abortion politics

Democrats appear to be on track to widen their majority in the Virginia Senate — a key chamber contested this year in a state where abortion access is rampant.

On Wednesday afternoon, Democrat Aaron Rouse, a former National Football League player and former Virginia Beach City Council member, held a narrow lead over Republican opponent Kevin Adams in a special election to fill a vacancy in Virginia’s Seventh District Senate. Although Rouse has declare victory, there are some uncounted absentee ballots that could erase a lead of less than 350 votes. If Rouse wins, Democrats will have a 22-18 edge in the chamber, which begins the annual session Wednesday.

The race could decide whether state Republicans can pass additional restrictions on abortion this year. Even though Democrats hold a majority in the Senate, the margin would be only 21-19 in that chamber if Adams wins. Adams said he supports the 15-week abortion ban proposed by Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. And Democratic state Senator Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) is openly anti-abortion and has said that he will remain “open minded” when it comes to further restrictions on abortion. That means the room can potentially be connected on the issue, and Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, also an anti-abortion politician, will cast the tiebreaking vote.

Virginia is one of the states considering more restrictions on abortion this year. A bill that would ban abortions after fetal heart activity is detected in Nebraska, that would prevent local governments from funding employees seeking abortions through health plans or reimbursement for out-of-state travel in Tennessee, and that would ban abortions before 12 weeks. pregnancy in North Carolina is among the on the table. The Guttmacher Institute, a pro-abortion rights think tank, found that 24 states are likely to ban abortion or have done so by 2023.

That made abortion a key issue for Democrats in state legislative races, including for Rouse. He ran several TV ads focusing on the issue and received more than $100,000 from Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia this cycle.

“When I was in the NFL, my job was to be the last defense. Now, that’s what we need in Richmond,” he said in one December ad. “Women’s rights are on the line, but I won’t back down.”

Before Rouse’s win, the threat to abortion access in the state was very real. Currently, Virginia allows abortions up to about 26 weeks of pregnancy and, after that, only in cases where three doctors certify that the life of the pregnant woman is at risk. Youngkin’s proposal for a 15-week ban includes exemptions for rape, incest, and saving the life of a pregnant woman. Democrats have argued that the governor’s proposal could lead to prison time for women and doctors, but Youngkin’s office has fired framing it as “political posturing” and saying he would not imprison women.

Youngkin has also proposed barring state Medicaid from covering abortions when the fetus has an “incapacitating” physical or mental disability, and preventing state funds from being used to support abortion services.

The measure could pass in the Republican-controlled state House. But if Rouse wins, that will likely foreclose the possibility of a tie in the state Senate and doom Youngkin’s proposal for now.

What’s next for abortion rights in Virginia

A Rouse victory would preserve the status quo on abortion rights in Virginia, but only temporarily.

Democrats could drop a vote in the state Senate if Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond) resigns, reopening the possibility of a tie. He is favored to win a special election to fill a vacant federal congressional seat in February, but he told the Virginia Mercury that he is confident a vote on abortion legislation will be completed before he has to resign and the Democratic caucus will remain strong. against more abortion restrictions. It is unclear whether there is time to hold a special election to fill the seat, which must occur at least 55 days before the June 20 primary.

Then, in November, all 140 state legislative seats are up for grabs, and if the Republicans can defend the majority in the state House and net even just one seat in the state Senate, Youngkin’s proposal, or even more extreme restrictions on abortion, such as a proposed ban after 12 weeks pregnant, can go back on the table. Youngkin previously said he would be “happy” to sign “any bill [to protect life] that came to my table” – not just one of his own designs.

At the same time, abortion rights groups in the country are trying to further protect abortion rights. REPRO Rising Virginia, an abortion rights group, is pushing for the state constitutional amendment which would establish the right to reproductive freedom and make pregnancy decisions without discrimination, as well as protect abortion providers and their patients from criminalization.

Although other states have successfully passed similar abortion rights amendments to their state constitutions in the past year, the amendment probably won’t happen in Virginia anytime soon, especially if Republicans control the state House. Any amendment must pass the legislature two years in a row with intervening state House elections before going to the voters.

Virginia is a top priority for Democrats in 2023

If Rouse wins, it will be a good sign for Democrats who want to take back the Virginia House of Delegates and defend their majority in the state Senate this fall.

They only need three more seats to win the House, and if they succeed in widening the majority in the state Senate by winning the Seventh District, they will have a cushion heading into November, when the new electoral map is drawn by the court-appointed special master who will shake the dynamics for the incumbent Democrats. The map is considered to be slightly favorable to Democrats, but some Democratic lawmakers have argued that the new map should give greater favor to the party and is unfair against incumbents.

“Virginia is a big priority,” said Jessica Post, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the Democratic Party’s fundraising arm dedicated to state legislative races. “We have to do a lot of work, especially with incumbent Democrats, to introduce them to new constituencies and [ensure] he has a good record to live up to.

Democrats expect Youngkin to spend heavily in state legislative races ahead of his rumored 2024 presidential bid, which he has yet to rule out. A big victory this year could help him become a figure similar to the Republican Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis or the Democratic Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom seem to have a future in national politics due to their ability to hold and deepen the majority in the state legislature.

“We think that Youngkin, because he is rich and has a great ability to raise money nationally, will try to use this as evidence,” Post said. “I hope we can find the national interest in Virginia that we have been able to find in previous cycles and that Youngkin is humble and manages some of his ambitions in the state.”