A verdict against Trump may not hurt his base — but what about other supporters?

A day after a New York jury found that Donald Trump had sexually abused magazine writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s and then abandoned her, an audience of mostly Trump supporters at a CNN town hall greeted the former US president with enthusiastic applause. Some gave him a standing ovation.

When the topic of the civil case was brought up Wednesday night by CNN moderator Kaitlan Collins and Trump responded with jokes and mockery about Carroll, many in the audience laughed.

The ruling in the civil case is just part of Trump’s legal baggage as he campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination for 2024, raising questions about how, at least, it could affect his chances in the general election.

“Is enough of the indictment against the former president … to be this collective baggage? Maybe,” said Gunner Ramer, political director of the Republican Accountability PAC, a group of Republicans and conservatives who want to ensure that Trump does not become president of the party. nomination, said in an interview.

“Or are these accusations spreading, the idea of ​​the victim just being watered down every now and then, making this short-term rally in Trump permanent?”

The reaction to the verdict among a Trump-friendly crowd at a CNN town hall suggested that the civil trial, and the jury’s verdict, may have little effect on supporters as he campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination. Indeed, some Republican observers say it could increase support among those who believe, like Trump, that he is the victim of a prosecutorial witch hunt.

“Oh, the hardcore language will always be interpreted that way. The real question is whether the effect has gone beyond the hardcore language,” said Republican strategist Whit Ayres.

Ayres sees Republicans divided into three factions: about 10 percent “never Trump,” 30 percent “always Trump” and the rest “maybe Trump.”

“There are factions of ‘always Trump’ who will go through a wall of fire for him and for whom this verdict, if anything, strengthens their support for him,” he said. “Women in Trump’s core base will simply dismiss the accuser as a liar and not pay much attention.”

Ramer said the group’s research shows little support rallies for Trump at a time when he is seen by some Republicans as besieged by the legal establishment.

These include, Ramer said, an indictment by a Manhattan grand jury on charges related to cash payments made in 2016 to women who reported extramarital affairs, as well as an FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida over his handling of them. classified documents and potential obstruction of justice.

“[The verdict] It’s another thing for Republican primary voters to see and mark Donald Trump again as this person who, for them, is constantly under attack, this sense of victimhood,” Ramer said.

Recent polls show Trump’s support has only increased among Republican supporters, including women. A poll conducted in April by Fox News found that Trump leads potential rivals and confirmed for the presidential nomination with 53 percent support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 21 percent, Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence with six percent. and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at four percent.

And the results are about the same for men and women.

Meanwhile, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll also found Trump leading the rest of the Republicans, and, more shockingly for US President Joe Biden, he would lose to Trump, 49 percent to 42 percent.

Axios co-founder Mike Allen noted in a newsletter the morning after Trump’s sexual assault verdict that “Trump’s grip on Republicans seems. stronger than ever – and his chances of defeating President Biden are very high.

“Call it Trump’s Law of Backlash: Everything that hurts him only makes him stronger,” he wrote.

However, the ruling has prompted some Republican politicians to question how Trump could be upstaged in the general election.

‘It’s a concern’

“It certainly raises concerns. How can it not raise concerns? If what the woman said … she has been found civilly liable, how can we do anything but raise concerns?” Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy told reporters Wednesday when asked about the verdict.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota said that while some believe that the prosecutor “is out to get” Trump, “people will have to decide whether … they want to deal with all the drama that will surround them.”

Some potential opponents also condemned Trump.

“The jury’s verdict should be taken seriously and is another example of Donald Trump’s indefensible behavior,” said former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who has officially announced his candidacy.

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who could also make a bid, dismissed Trump’s cries of victimhood.

“How many coincidences are we going to have here with Donald Trump?” Christie said.

“They just have random people they’ve never met before who can convince a jury that he tortured them? I mean, this guy, the only guy,” he said.

But most of the potential and announced presidential candidates are silent on the verdict. Haley, when asked about the conservative talk show The Hugh Hewitt Show, refused to comment, saying: “I won’t get into it. That’s something for Trump to respond to.”

Meanwhile, other Republicans defended the former president.

“When it comes to Donald Trump, New York’s legal system is priceless,” South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham said.

‘Pick him twice’

“It makes me want to vote for him twice,” Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville told HuffPost when asked about the verdict. “He’s going to do whatever he can to prevent him from winning. It’s not going to work … people are going to see through the line; the New York jury, he doesn’t have a chance.”

Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said the verdict was consistent with Trump’s message over the years that he was being unfairly targeted. With most candidates involved in such controversies, something big happens, the person feels embarrassed, so they hide, potentially even disappearing, he said.

“But Trump doesn’t feel ashamed. And I think part of that is that he just believes what he wants. So in his mind, he believes he didn’t do anything wrong. And this is a witch hunt. So he doesn’t believe there’s anything to be ashamed of.

“One of the things he’s done effectively, and I think he’s unique in this way, is that he takes things that should be disqualifying or significantly damaging and he turns them around and makes himself a victim.”

But when the primary debate begins, the candidates will begin to draw distinctions and contrasts, Mackowiak said.

“The only thing I’m wondering is will the Republican primary voters get tired of the legal entanglement and chaos around Trump?”

However, among Trump’s legal entanglements, the sexual assault verdict may play a more important role in helping primary voters decide whether they want to support Trump.

Ryan Goodman, a professor at New York University law school, and Norma Eisen, who served as counsel to the House judiciary committee in Trump’s first impeachment trial, wrote an article making the point that research shows more voters find sexual misconduct. disqualifying feature for holding office.

“Some Republican primary voters may be looking at how voters in the general election will react if he is proven to have committed sexual assault and therefore want to vote for a more competitive candidate for the party,” he wrote in Just Security, an online forum for analysis of security, democracy, policy abroad, and rights.