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Despite the ballyhoo that surrounded the announcement last year, it became clear that the modernization of the North American air defense system – the plan to spend $ 4.9 billion over six years – has a long way to go and some key technical obstacles to overcome.
The Trudeau government unveiled its long-anticipated NORAD modernization plan back in June during a summit of NATO leaders – a tense meeting where alliance members, dogged by the war in Ukraine, are expected to show how serious they are about defense spending. .
And the planned air defense upgrade was a major talking point for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Defense Minister Anita Anand and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly at the NATO summit in Madrid.
In the months since, however, some of the challenges facing the multi-billion-dollar defense makeover have become glaringly obvious – especially in Canada.
The goal of the modernization program is to create a layered defense in the Far North that will protect against strategic bombers (the type NORAD was created to fight more than seven decades ago) but also ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles – the type of weapons we use. has been seen pumming Ukraine.
According to the plan, Canada and the US want to increase satellite coverage, introduce modern over-the-horizon radars and install sensors and surveillance under the sea in the Arctic – especially in “choke points”, entering the sea into the archipelago. Canada claims it as a sovereign territory.
The good news, according to the Canadian Armed Forces’ operational commander, is that the military has a good handle on surveillance in the Far North now, because humble ship traffic levels.
“Do I have decent domain awareness now? Yes, I do,” said Vice Admiral Bob Auchterlonie, who is in charge of Canada’s Joint Operations Command. “For example, in the maritime domain there are only 150 ships that actually transit the North every year. We know every one of them, we track them very well.”
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The challenge – or threat – lies below the surface of the ocean, especially under the ice where submarines with ballistic or cruise missiles can lurk.
In a year-end interview with CBC News, Auchterlonie said Canada and its allies have always shared naval intelligence on the location of the enemy and major warships, including submarines.
And a host of new technologies – some still in development – are expected to join NORAD’s underwater network soon, he said.
“I would say that technology has advanced a lot over the last several years. And we are working with our allies, as well as our own defense scientists, to create that ability to detect the enemy in our waters … on the surface and subsurface,” said Auchterlonie .
The development of the new technology – which could include portable sensor arrays, unmanned ships and unmanned underwater vehicles built to hunt submarines – is being carried out in conjunction with the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet.
Last summer, the US Navy’s chief of naval operations presented a plan to revitalize the fleet by 2045. It calls for a fleet of 373 manned ships and 150 unmanned patrol ships, for a total of 523 ships. The Navy is asking Congress for more than $250 million to develop unmanned surface and subsurface ships.
Although the construction of the new weapons system is still ongoing, Auchterlonie said Canada is following the development.
That said, he added, Canada and the US could start using current technology – such as underwater drones – to protect the North.
The war in Ukraine has created an undeniable sense of urgency in the West over the need to develop new surveillance technologies — and Canada has been watching Moscow’s moves north with growing alarm.
“Russia is rebuilding its Arctic military infrastructure for Soviet-era capabilities,” Jody Thomas, the prime minister’s national security and intelligence adviser, recently told the House of Commons defense committee.
“They’ve stopped. And they’re back. I think that’s interesting. They’re continuing to build in the Arctic despite the economic problems they’re having because of the illegal and barbaric invasion of Ukraine.”
During a visit to Canada’s Far North last summer, Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO, stated that the shortest route for Russia to attack North America is through the Arctic.
Canadian officials have repeatedly stated that the planned purchase of F-35 stealth fighters and the introduction of modern over-the-horizon (OTH) radars will go a long way to allaying these fears.
Over-the-horizon (OTH) radar systems can locate targets beyond the range of conventional radars. They also draw a lot of energy. Defense scientists are trying to figure out how to power the station in a remote northern location in an environmentally responsible way.
“Due to their extreme size, most OTH radar systems are located in remote areas where access to much power from the electrical grid is inadequate. Therefore, diesel generators are used regularly,” said a technical memo of Defense and Development Canada written in 2006, when the military is studying the feasibility of the new system.
It was warned that, to prevent shutdowns, a two-megawatt generator burning 15,000 liters of diesel fuel per day would be needed to power the OTH array.
That “leads to a separate problem with continuous fuel supply,” the memo said. “Fuel supply disruptions (say, due to severe winter weather events) can be mitigated by maintaining fuel reserves for several days.”
Perhaps the most pressing and pressing issue facing Canadian officials is the government-owned RADARSAT Constellation chain of satellites that is rapidly expanding. The federal auditor general warned in November that the satellite could exceed its useful life by 2026.
A replacement for the satellite – which is used by several government departments, including National Defense – is still on the drawing board. The current government promised a special military surveillance satellite in the 2017 defense policy but – as noted by Auditor General Karen Hogan in her recent report – the system is not set to be launched until 2035.
The government needs a ‘contingency plan,’ the AG said
“What we are looking for is that the government has a contingency plan,” Hogan told the Commons defense committee on December 8, 2022.
“What will happen when these satellites reach the end of their useful life? Right now, the government buys the information commercially or becomes an ally.”
Nicholas Swale, a senior official in Hogan’s office, told the same committee that the satellite system was overtaxed.
“There are many departments that seek information from these satellites and their needs are not being met now,” he said.
In an interview at the end of the year with CBC News, General Wayne Eyre, the chief of the defense staff, was asked whether the Department of National Defense will accelerate the program to launch a special satellite before 2035.
“At this point, I don’t know,” he said. “But we’ll definitely try.”
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