A New Round of Middle East Fighting

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Nearly three months ago, Khader Adnan – a Palestinian prisoner in Israel and the leader of an armed Palestinian group called Islamic Jihad – began a hunger strike to protest his detention. Adnan, who was 45, died last week.

Almost immediately, his death sparked violence. That evening, Islamic Jihad launched more than 100 projectiles into southern Israel. In response, Israeli officials began planning a counterattack.

A week later, an Israeli missile struck three apartments in the Gaza Strip within seconds on Tuesday morning, killing three Islamic Jihad commanders as most Gazans slept. The attack also killed 10 civilians, according to Palestinian officials, including some of the target’s wives and children.

Islamic Jihad retaliated a day later, firing hundreds of rockets and bullets into Israel. Some reached the sky above the outskirts of Tel Aviv, although Israel’s air defense system intercepted most of the rockets and prevented casualties.

Yesterday, Israeli forces killed two more commanders of the group and continued to bomb sites of Islamic Jihad weapons. Islamic Jihad fired rockets, one of which hit an apartment building in central Israel, killing one resident – the first Israeli casualty in this round of fighting. Cross-border fighting continued this morning, with Islamic Jihad firing rockets into the hills around Jerusalem.

At least 31 Palestinians have been killed in the hostilities, six of them children, according to Palestinian health officials. Israel says its own Islamic Jihad rocket that misfired killed four.

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, founded in 1981, is a hardline organization that focuses more on the armed struggle against Israel and less on engaging with the Palestinian population. It denies Israel’s right to exist, as does its main supporter, Iran. The group’s goal is to establish an Islamic state in all of historic Palestine, including modern Israel.

Hamas, the larger and more popular Islamic militant group that controls the Palestinian coastal enclave of Gaza, was not involved in the rocket launch, although it supports Islamic Jihad.

Hamas sometimes acts in coordination with Islamic Jihad and at other times acts to prevent it. The political wing of Hamas is responsible for more than two million Gazans who are mostly poor, so their interests are very different. Operating under a blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt for security reasons, Hamas’ priorities include keeping the border crossing between Israel and Gaza open to the passage of Palestinian workers and goods.

Most likely in other truce shaky, such as the one that was broken first after Adnan’s death and again by Israel’s deadly predawn attack on Tuesday.

Islamic Jihad’s terms for a new ceasefire include Israel releasing Adnan’s body for burial; stop killings by the Israeli military; and canceled a provocative annual parade this month marking Israel’s capture of East Jerusalem in the 1967 war.

Although quiet has been restored, the underlying hostility will remain. Not much will change on either side. The truce will continue until the next round.

In November, Israel elected the right-wing and most religiously conservative government in the country’s 75-year history. His supporters expect him to act more aggressively against the threat from Gaza. The ultranationalist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, even boycotted the government vote in protest at what he saw as a weak response to heavy rocket fire last week.

It is always difficult to measure the effect of public opinion on government action. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a conservative with years of experience as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has long had a reputation for risk-taking and an aversion to military adventure.

Israel’s political and military leaders said they decided to attack the leader of Islamic Jihad after determining they needed to deter the group after it began firing more than 100 rockets a day.

Israel’s military campaign is far from unprecedented. The previous, centrist-led government launched a missile attack on Gaza in August that killed two senior Islamic Jihad commanders and more than 40 other Palestinians, including at least 15 children.

For Islamic Jihad, it probably makes little difference who sits in the Israeli government.

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