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The combination of 20%+ LAB’s ongoing polling combined with what happened in the parliamentary and local government elections continues to strengthen the betting market’s view of what will happen in the general election.
The current 62% chance of an overall majority for which Labor is rated is the highest and looks as if it could rise further. All the talk now is how hard it will be for the Tories to find the next big electricity test in the citizens in the first week of May.
In the previous thread there were reports from canvassers in one or two areas and the pictures they described were quite glum for Sunak.
I still think that in the last throw of the dice the Tories can decide to ditch Sunak and find someone else assuming that the May local elections are as bad as everyone in the party seems to fear.
Unless there is a radical change in the polls, the next election will see 100+ and possibly more Tory MPs lose their seats and that should make them very nervous right now.
Mike Smithson
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