Everyone would prefer a full cabinet overhaul with priority on competence and ethical leadership by President Cyril Ramaphosa, given the various crises facing the country, but this, unfortunately, is unlikely to happen. This was the view of Pranish Desai, of Good Governance Africa (GGA), ahead of Ramaphosa’s anticipated Cabinet reshuffle announcement on Monday night. Ramaphosa has been under pressure for months now to announce a Cabinet reshuffle due to poor service delivery. Also read: Is Ramaphosa ‘reckless’ to delay cabinet reshuffle as Mbalula claims? The reason why big change is impossible, according to Desai, is…
Everyone would prefer a full cabinet overhaul with priority on competence and ethical leadership by President Cyril Ramaphosa, given the various crises facing the country, but this, unfortunately, is unlikely to happen.
This was the view of Pranish Desai, of Good Governance Africa (GGA), ahead of Ramaphosa’s anticipated Cabinet reshuffle announcement on Monday night.
Ramaphosa has been under pressure for months now to announce a Cabinet reshuffle due to poor service delivery.
READ ALSO: Is Ramaphosa ‘reckless’ to delay cabinet reshuffle as Mbalula claims?
The reason why major changes are unlikely, according to Desai, is the upcoming general election next year.
“The reshuffle is primarily a political event, and the political dynamics nationally and within the ANC will change a lot depending on the outcome of those 2024 elections,” he said.
Commenting further on the reshuffle, Desai said the president’s main goal is to show the public that he prioritizes the energy crisis, as well as outline the Cabinet he intends to lead in the 2024 national elections.
Two interesting posts to fill
“It will be interesting to see who Ramaphosa chooses as electricity minister, and the clarity of whether ANC vice-president Paul Mashatile is also the country’s vice-president,” Desai said.
“There are suggestions that the main reason this reshuffle is taking so long is because Ramaphosa does not want to bring in Mashatile at this stage and if that is the case, then the course of events will give a clear indication that Ramaphosa’s hand is right. Strong as suggested after the ANC elective conference last year.
READ ALSO: There is no doubt that Mashatile is the next vice president of SA
Also considering the vacancy of the vice president, independent energy and political analyst Tshepo Kgadima said the 55th ANC elective conference which has long been put to rest and settled the question of who will replace the former vice president David Mabuza.
“There is no reason whatsoever to postpone the appointment of Paul Mashatile as the Vice President of the Republic of South Africa, except that the postponement is required by the possibility of tendering the resignation of the current President Cyril Ramaphosa due to the steps- aside of the rules after the Constitutional Court’s dismissal of the president who is fundamentally flawed in his application for review and rescission of section 89 panel report,” said Kgadima.
READ ALSO: David Mabuza has confirmed his resignation as SA vice president
Political analyst from North West University (NWU) Prof. Andre Duvenhage also agreed that the most important change will be in the appointment of the new vice president.
“My understanding is that there is an element of conflict between the presidency regarding the appointment of Paul Mashatile and I don’t think the two are really aligned and someone warned the president that he could jeopardize his position by appointing Mashatile.
“Mashatile, without a doubt, has high political aspirations and he is connected with some people including the radical economic transformation faction (RET) which has close ties with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) … so there is a real danger that must carefully assessed, hence the delay in the announcement of the Cabinet reshuffle,” said Duvenhage.
READ ALSO: Mashatile and Malema co-governing SA is not as farfetched as you might think
The post electricity minister could also prove to be a headache for Ramaphosa.
“The much-anticipated appointment of the so-called electricity minister is illegal and unconstitutional,” Kgadima said.
“Unfortunately for the people of South Africa, the National Executive Committee of the ANC (NEC) failed to apply its mind to the legality of the creation of the Cabinet position and thus, misled the president to announce what was clearly a knee-jerk reaction to himself. – creating an electricity crisis.”
Kgadima said he would be very surprised if Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan was retained, especially in the portfolio of public enterprises, where his position has been damaged, characterized by incompetence and compradorism.
What about other ministers?
Ms Dlamini-Zuma:
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma will be remembered for the attitude she took late last year when she voted for the Section 89 report into the Phala Phala Ramaphosa farm scandal, despite strict instructions from ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe who warned MPs what would happen. they voted in favor of the report.
According to Duvenhage, when Ramaphosa wants to get rid of him, he may move him to another portfolio.
“I think he (Dlamini-Zuma) still enjoys a lot of support and I think he also has some links to Mashatile,” Duvenhage said.
Lindiwe Sisulu:
Duvenhage believes that Sisulu, one of the ANC leaders who has been outspoken and critical in the past of Ramaphosa’s leadership, will be out.
Beki Cele:
“I expect that Cele will be sent back to Intelligence, so that Ramaphosa will bring the Zulu constituency closer. Remember, there is no one in the Top 7 of the ANC who is Zulu and therefore very critical,” said Duvenhage.
Another political analyst Piet Croucamp said Dlamini-Zuma would be moved to another department, but the chances of Sisulu remaining in the Cabinet were slim.
Time for significant change
“The president has been depressed and that’s why this is not just a cosmetic change and if he doesn’t cut deep, he will be heavily criticized by the public about why he underestimated. for a long time if the changes he made are not fundamental,” added Croucamp.
For legal experts, Adv. Francois Botes, in his view Ramaphosa is not only considering reshuffling the Cabinet but also a total overhaul.
“Some prominent ministers unfortunately did not make it into the ANC NEC. Ministers such as Pravin Gordhan, who I think is nearing the end of his political career, while people like Gwede Mantashe, although he is a prominent leader in the ANC who survives, without the president’s support, his politics (Mantashe). career is also hanging on a very thin line.
“As for the so-called experienced politicians, like Naledi Pandor and Bheki Cele, I think their future is also uncertain,” said Botes.
Botes said he did not believe Dlamini-Zuma would be retained, insisting that if the president could not count on her support and loyalty, there would be no place for her in Cabinet.
Botes said the Cabinet reshuffle presents a golden opportunity for Ramaphosa to show his strength and flex his muscles, if the ANC ignores the barrel of the gun, which appears to be unfavorable to him in the upcoming general election.
“The general public is desperate for services. People are desperate for hope and it seems the ANC has no policies to ease the pressures South Africans face every day.